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Compromissos dos comerciantes - um guia final para um comerciante de Forex.

Compromissos dos comerciantes - um guia final.

Depois de falar com muitos comerciantes do dia, noto que a maioria deles desconta o relatório Commitments of Traders como um indicador de liderança funcional. Eles são da opinião de que os dados reportados com atrasos de cinco dias são inválidos.

Compromissos de comerciantes é o primeiro dos 4 passos essenciais para lucrar em Forex. Isso confirma seu viés de longo prazo no mercado.

Não há melhor maneira tangível de o fazer.

Se você é aquele cara que sempre diz & # 8211; Compromissos de comerciantes é inválido, atrasado, antigo ou irrelevante, talvez este artigo não seja para você.

Este artigo é para aqueles comerciantes que podem ver além dos gráficos de 15 minutos, mas espero que você decida lê-lo de qualquer maneira, porque.

Eu realmente acredito que há provas suficientes para você mudar de idéia e uma vez que você chegar ao final desta página, você será um operador muito melhor.

Aqui está o # 8211; Tudo o que você precisa saber sobre o C. O.T.

Por que os preços realmente mudam? Qual é o relatório de Compromissos dos Comerciantes? Quem se qualifica para os relatórios da CFTC? Definições em torno de Compromissos de Traders Como encontrar o relatório Como usá-lo no comércio Como trazê-lo para o gráfico Quão precisos são os Compromissos dos Traders realmente.

Por que os preços realmente se movem?

O preço é um resultado de compradores & # 8217; e vendedores & # 8217; interação. Muitos traders sabem disso, mas poucos usam.

A aplicação prática desta lei abrangente de mercado pode ser extremamente útil para quem já se atreveu a prever preços futuros.

Condições fundamentais e técnicas criam oferta e demanda. Esta é a única lei do preço.

Não importa quão trivial possa parecer, a demanda e a oferta determinam o preço.

Pode ser parcialmente motivado por emoções ou lógica, mas afinal de contas & # 8211; o volume de pedidos decidirá para que lado o preço irá.

Oferta e demanda é um princípio básico em economia ilustrado no gráfico abaixo.

Quanto maior o preço (eixo Y), menos a mercadoria é exigida (eixo X).

Há muitas maneiras de medir a oferta e a demanda no mercado. Mas o Commitments of Traders é de longe a ferramenta mais precisa que conheço.

O método de análise de mercado usando o Relatório de Compromissos de Negociadores pode ser considerado como uma análise fundamental.

A análise fundamental em si não encontrou uma ampla aplicação para os traders. Não é segredo que a maioria dos traders usa análise técnica para a negociação real.

Isso se deve ao fato de que a análise fundamental é frequentemente relacionada ao release econômico, e é impossível prever a reação do mercado às notícias, porque os traders têm conhecimento limitado de finanças e macroeconomia. Muitos traders optam pela análise técnica como um núcleo de suas negociações.

Não se pode sustentar lucros a longo prazo sem compreender as forças reais por trás do movimento de preços.

Qual é o relatório de Compromissos de Comerciantes?

O Relatório de Compromissos de Comerciantes é emitido pela CFTC.

O relatório do Commitments of Traders (COT) fornece uma análise da participação aberta de cada terça-feira para mercados nos quais 20 ou mais traders ocupam posições iguais ou acima dos níveis de relatórios estabelecidos pela CFTC. Esta é uma ferramenta essencial para avaliar o sentimento de longo prazo nos mercados futuros.

Antecedentes dos relatórios de Compromissos de Comerciantes (COT) podem ser rastreados até 1924. Naquele ano, a Administração de Futuros Grãos do Departamento de Agricultura dos Estados Unidos (predecessora da Autoridade de Troca de Mercadorias do USDA, por sua vez a antecessora da CFTC), publicou seu primeiro relatório anual abrangente de hedge e especulação em mercados futuros regulamentados.

A partir de 30 de junho de 1962, os dados da COT foram publicados a cada mês. Na época, este relatório para 13 commodities agrícolas foi proclamado como "outro passo adiante na política de fornecer ao público dados atuais e básicos sobre as operações do mercado futuro". # 8221; Esses relatórios originais foram então compilados em uma base de fim de mês e publicados no 11º ou 12º dia de calendário do mês seguinte.

Ele relata todas as posições em aberto nos mercados futuros de três grupos principais de negociadores:

Comerciantes Comerciais - Hedgers. Gatos gordos com bolsos fundos Traders não comerciais - gerentes de dinheiro ou especuladores não reportáveis ​​- mercado de varejo. Você e eu Mate!

O relatório detalha o interesse em aberto de cada terça-feira e nos dá uma visão poderosa sobre o que exatamente os grandes caras têm feito no mercado e quais podem ser seus planos.

É emitido todas as sextas e inclui dados de terça a terça.

Os três dias anteriores à data de lançamento não estão incluídos.

Simplificando, os relatórios COT nos dão uma visão das carteiras de negociação dos comerciantes mais influentes do mercado.

Uma vez que sabemos o que esses caras estão fazendo, é mais fácil eliminar o barulho, as opiniões e o hype. Lembre-se, o volume de dinheiro colocado em um lado do mercado irá inclinar o preço para essa direção. Isso é oferta e demanda em jogo. Isso é tão simples quanto parece.

Os relatórios estão disponíveis em formato curto e longo. O relatório curto mostra uma participação em aberto separadamente para posições reportáveis ​​e não reportáveis.

Para posições reportáveis, são fornecidos dados adicionais para participações comerciais e não comerciais, divulgação, alterações em relação ao relatório anterior, porcentagens de participação em aberto por categoria e número de operadores. A maior parte é irrelevante para nós.

Queremos nos concentrar em ordens comerciais, não comerciais e em aberto.

A CFTC disponibiliza mais de três anos de histórico de dados desagregados incluídos nos relatórios semanais de Compromissos de Comerciantes (COT).

Você pode acessar a tabela Historical Viewable e no formato do Excel indo para o painel do lado esquerdo no site, conforme a imagem abaixo.

Isso pode ser útil se você quiser ver mais correlações entre o preço e os dados de C. O.T.

Quem se qualifica para relatórios da CFTC.

Quando um comerciante reportável individual é identificado para a Comissão, o comerciante é classificado como “comercial”. ou "não comercial". # 8221; Todas as posições de futuros de um comerciante em uma commodity são classificadas como comerciais se o comerciante usar contratos futuros nessa mercadoria específica para hedge, conforme definido na Regra 1.3, 17 CFR 1.3 (z) da CFTC.

Os regulamentos definem quem é quem com base na atividade comercial iniciada. Alguns dos comerciantes ou instituições estariam isentos de impostos (apenas para cobertura) outros teriam que divulgar livros, etc.

O fato mais importante é que esses dois grupos têm que realizar um grande número de negociações para que a CFTC as considere no relatório.

Esses caras são pesados ​​com muito capital por trás deles. O menor contrato que eles permitem negociar é de € 125.000.

Em princípio, eles sabem o que fazem com mais frequência do que o comerciante varejista, como eu ou você.

Definições em torno de compromissos de comerciantes.

Existem algumas definições importantes a serem entendidas para entender completamente esse conceito.

Interesse aberto.

Este é um conceito muito importante para os comerciantes de futuros.

Juros Abertos é o número total de contratos pendentes que são mantidos pelos participantes do mercado no final de cada dia.

Por exemplo, se ambas as partes do negócio estiverem iniciando uma nova posição (um novo comprador e um novo vendedor), o interesse em aberto aumentará em um contrato. Se ambos os operadores estiverem fechando uma posição existente ou antiga (um antigo comprador e um antigo vendedor), o interesse em aberto diminuirá em um contrato. A terceira e última possibilidade é que um antigo operador passe sua posição para um novo operador (um comprador antigo vende para um novo comprador). Nesse caso, o interesse em aberto não será alterado.

Aumentar o interesse aberto significa que dinheiro novo está fluindo para o mercado. Os comerciantes abrem novas posições e criam novas transações. O resultado será que a tendência atual (para cima, para baixo ou para os lados) continuará.

Declínio de contratos em aberto significa que o mercado está liquidando e implica que a tendência de preços prevalecente está chegando ao fim.

Se os juros em aberto aumentarem com o preço, o mercado em alta é bem suportado e deve continuar. O mesmo se aplica aos mercados de baixa. Se o interesse aberto aumenta com a queda do preço, o mercado de baixa é forte. Se o juro em aberto está começando a cair em preços ainda em alta, isso significa que a tendência de alta atual está próxima do fim. Bulls agora estão liquidando / vendendo suas posições compradas substituindo longs com shorts. A queda de preço deve seguir rapidamente. Se os juros em aberto estiverem em um máximo de vários anos, a tendência atual pode estar próxima do fim, pois pode não haver muitos traders a serem negociados. Eles estão todos na posição já.

Veja mais recursos inteligentes se quiser saber mais sobre o interesse em aberto.

Veja esta tabela simples para analisar o interesse aberto.

2. Comerciantes Comerciais.

Uma entidade comercial geralmente é classificada como um & # 8220; comercial & # 8221; Comerciante, apresentando uma declaração à Comissão, no Formulário 40 da CFTC: Declaração do Comerciante de Relatórios, que está comercialmente "engajada em atividades de negócios protegidas pelo uso dos mercados de futuros ou de opções". # 8221;

Este grupo de comerciantes são chamados de hedgers ou produtores. Dependendo do mercado, esse grupo incluiria principalmente grandes produtores de uma determinada commodity ou instituições financeiras que se protegem contra futuras mudanças de preço.

Por exemplo: Mina de ouro, fábrica de açúcar, produtores de trigo, Nestlé (o açúcar é a sua principal matéria-prima), etc.

Em princípio, esses caras querem vender seus produtos no mercado a um preço alto e comprá-los de volta pelo menor preço possível. É por isso que os comerciantes comerciais são mais otimistas na parte inferior do mercado e mais pessimistas no topo.

Veja como os comerciantes comerciais (em vermelho) foram posicionados nos níveis extremos de vários anos de seus pedidos. O preço reverteu logo após começar uma nova tendência de longo prazo.

3. Comerciantes Não Comerciais & # 8211; Especuladores.

Os compradores de mercadorias e os riscos que lhes são inerentes são chamados de especuladores. O principal objetivo de um especulador é gerar lucro a partir da diferença entre os preços atuais e futuros.

Eles fornecem alta liquidez de mercado.

Grandes bancos, investimentos e fundos de hedge seriam incluídos nesta seção.

Esses caras administram dinheiro para seus clientes e são altamente motivados pelo lucro. Eles são seguidores de tendência e seriam mais otimistas no final do mercado de touro e mais baixa no final de um mercado de urso.

Veja como posições especulativas (em verde) estão posicionadas nos níveis extremos logo antes do mercado girar.

4. Não reportável.

Os juros em aberto longos e curtos mostrados como "Posições não relatáveis" # 8221; é derivado da subtração do total de posições longas e curtas & # 8220; Reportable Positions & # 8221; do total de juros em aberto. Assim, para "Posições não reportáveis", "# 8221; o número de comerciantes envolvidos e a classificação comercial / não comercial de cada comerciante são desconhecidos. CFTC.

Essencialmente, quem fica depois da classificação entra nesse grupo. Esta seção inclui pequenos traders de varejo como eu e você. Não somos elegíveis para reportar nossas posições de negociação para a CFTC. Eles não dão uma ratinha minúscula sobre nossas negociações.

As posições abertas de varejo não movimentam os mercados.

Não temos impacto nos preços de mercado. Este grupo é “ouvido” e está do lado errado do mercado na maioria dos casos. Deve ser usado como um indicador contrário.

Como encontrar o relatório.

Encontrar o relatório é uma tarefa bastante fácil.

Siga o passo abaixo para acessar o relatório Commitments of Traders.

Vá para cftc. gov/index. htm e escolha Commitments of Traders na aba Market Report no menu principal.

Role para baixo até a seção RELATÓRIOS DO LEGADO ATUAL e escolha o relatório “Formato curto” ao lado de Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Uma vez clicado, você verá uma página básica com muitos instrumentos. É aqui que a CFTC reporta dados nos principais mercados, incluindo: commodities, moedas, índices.

Aqui você encontrará manteiga, gado, libra esterlina, eurodólares ou futuros S & P 500.

Estamos atrás das principais moedas. Estes são os nossos favoritos!

Cada mercado está recebendo uma tabela. Todas as informações relevantes estão incluídas nessa tabela.

Os dados são publicados todas as sextas-feiras, mas compilados até a terça-feira anterior.

Por exemplo, haverá um novo conjunto de números publicados nesta sexta-feira, 20 de maio. Os dados serão compilados por uma semana de 10 a 17 de maio e assim por diante.

Isso é importante especialmente quando notícias importantes devem ser divulgadas. Às vezes, o relatório COT não os inclui até a semana seguinte.

O que esses números significam?

Seção Não Comercial / Especuladores inclui três linhas; Long, Short e Spreads. Estamos preocupados com as posições longa e curta. A seção Comercial / produtores inclui duas linhas com posições curtas e longas. Neste exemplo, os comerciantes comerciais realizaram 181.863 posições longas e 152.379 posições curtas. A seção "Não reportáveis ​​/ comerciantes de varejo" inclui duas linhas com posições longas e curtas. Neste exemplo, os comerciantes de varejo foram 52.837 longos e 60.449 curtos. Total de Juros Abertos neste mercado a cada terça-feira. Foram 344.978 transações no total. Mudança no interesse aberto da semana anterior. Nesse caso, houve 15.483 transações fechadas / cobertas naquela semana. Isso é% de juros em aberto para cada grupo de traders. Veja comerciantes comerciais que detêm 52% de todo o mercado em longos. Mudanças semanais em longo, curto e espalhados por todos os grupos. Isso informará quantos contratos adicionais foram comprados ou cobertos desde o último relatório. Nesse caso, os traders não comerciais reduziram suas posições vendidas em 11.757 e as perdas em 13.504. Total de transações realizadas por cada grupo de negociação. Neste exemplo, os especuladores possuíam 101.227 posições longas e 123.149 posições curtas. Eles ainda são NET SHORT neste mercado.

Como usá-lo na negociação.

O relatório COT não é projetado como uma ferramenta de entrada no mercado.

O mercado pode ser de alta de curto prazo em uma tendência de baixa de longo prazo.

O relatório foi elaborado para avaliar a oferta e a demanda de importantes participantes do mercado.

Pode ser usado para confirmar viés fundamental a médio / longo prazo em um determinado mercado.

Diminuir / flat longa posições não comerciais no aumento dos preços pode sugerir o topo é iminente. Os comerciantes devem procurar uma configuração curta perto da resistência.

O aumento de posições não comerciais curtas sobre a queda dos preços pode apoiar a tendência de baixa.

Dependendo do comerciante, um dos grupos pode ser analisado. Alguns traders analisarão o comportamento de Hedgers e analisarão seu posicionamento no mercado. Alguns são da opinião de que esses caras.

são os maiores no mercado, portanto, conhecem melhor o mercado.

Outros comerciantes analisariam o posicionamento especulativo. Pessoalmente, gosto de ver os dois grupos em aberto. Na maioria dos casos, eles seriam exatamente o oposto de qualquer maneira.

Existem duas técnicas principais que você pode usar para sua negociação.

Níveis extremos oscilam.

Posicionamento de rede.

Existe uma forte correlação entre posições altas ou baixas com vários anos e oscilações de mercado.

No gráfico abaixo, analisamos os dados de EURUSD e EURO FX Commitments of Traders.

No gráfico abaixo, você vê que os comerciantes comerciais (em vermelho) estavam em níveis baixos ou altos de vários anos, logo antes de o preço subir e ser revertido. A regra é aguardar o nível mais alto ou mais baixo em 3 anos para "começar a pensar" (não diga "entrar") de reversão de longo prazo. Lembre-se, o Commitments of Traders não é uma ferramenta de entrada no mercado.

Os Compromissos dos Comerciantes indicarão que a tendência atual está prestes a terminar, mas ainda é provável que continue por um tempo. Não sabemos se isso é 100 ou 500 pips. À medida que a participação do mercado aumenta com o tempo, pode ser difícil prever o topo ou o fundo. Sempre pode haver mais comerciantes no mercado este ano do que no ano passado.

A entrada deve ser determinada usando outros sinais de ação de preço técnico. Estes podem ser o padrão de reversão de castiçal em gráficos diários ou semanais, tops / fundos duplos, divergências e muito mais.

Estes irão variar de mercado para mercado e devem ser escolhidos individualmente com base na preferência do profissional.

Pessoalmente, acho a vela diária envolvente muito confiável para sinalizar o fim da tendência atual.

Essa é minha técnica favorita. É mais preciso e confiável em comparação com a estratégia de níveis extremos. Baseia-se em um princípio mais tangível.

A premissa básica desse conceito é "começar a pensar" sobre a mudança de tendência se as posições especulativas tornarem NET longo ou NET curto.

Os especuladores serão NET LONG se suas posições longas excederem posições curtas. ELES POSSUEM MAIS LONGOS NO EQUILÍBRIO.

No exemplo abaixo, os especuladores ocupam posições mais curtas (123.149) do que longos (101.277), portanto, são NET SHORT.

No gráfico abaixo, você percebe como os especuladores se tornaram otimistas ou pessimistas em algumas ocasiões. Estes são marcados com a linha vermelha horizontal. Toda vez, o preço se inverteu e seguiu.

a lei de oferta ou demanda. Se os especuladores viraram NET LONG, o preço subiu substancialmente. O mesmo vale para os mercados de baixa. Quando os especuladores se tornaram NET SHORT, o preço fluiu rapidamente.

para o lado negativo. Novamente, isso não é uma ferramenta de entrada. A entrada no mercado deve ser determinada usando outros indicadores técnicos para diminuir o risco.

Como trazê-lo para o gráfico.

Se você estiver usando o MT4, há vários indicadores para escolher. A maneira mais simples é o google "compromissos dos comerciantes mt4".

Eu pessoalmente uso cot4metatrader /. Esta é uma solução muito confiável e barata (US $ 10 por mês).

Eu recebo um e-mail toda sexta-feira depois de NY fechar com o arquivo a ser carregado para a minha pasta MT4. Os dados de todas as principais moedas são preenchidos imediatamente.

Além disso, Lynn é um cara muito legal que está sempre disposto a ajudar.

Os indicadores vêm com algumas opções. Você pode acompanhar os juros em aberto, as posições totais ou o índice de cada grupo individual.

Quão exatos são os Compromissos dos Comerciantes realmente?

Este indicador não gera muitos sinais. Pode haver menos de cinco sinais por ano em grandes cruzamentos de câmbio, uma vez que eles se desdobrem, são altamente confiáveis ​​e permitem que o trader permaneça na posição de médio e longo prazo.

Compromisso de comerciantes provou para ser uma ferramenta muito poderosa em muitas ocasiões.

Veja os artigos abaixo e observe os sinais se desdobrando muitas semanas antes da oscilação dos preços.

Na maioria dos casos, o sentimento de varejo está do lado oposto do mercado & # 8211; Isto é você & # 8211; O cara que é da opinião de que C. O.T é um dado antigo e não pode ser usado na negociação.

Veja o que você pensa.

Conclusão.

Não me lembro de vezes em que negociei sem ver o que o dinheiro inteligente está fazendo nos mercados. Não consigo imaginar a negociação sem o COT.

A C. O.T previu oscilações de mercado muitas vezes antes com precisão mortal.

Algumas idéias para tirar.

O relatório COT não é design como uma ferramenta de entrada no mercado. O mercado pode ser de alta de curto prazo em uma tendência de baixa de longo prazo.

O relatório COT é projetado para avaliar a oferta e a demanda de participantes importantes do mercado.

Pode ser usado para confirmar viés fundamental a médio / longo prazo em um determinado mercado.

Não é adequado para day traders que entram no mercado muitas vezes por dia e tomam alguns pips de cada vez.

Os comerciantes de dia não precisam ter um viés de longo prazo para a moeda em questão. A negociação é realizada com base em flutuações de curto prazo.

BERÇO. relatório é projetado para os comerciantes com horizontes mais longos. Aqueles que planejam suas negociações alguns meses à frente. Os operadores de swing entram nos mercados algumas vezes por trimestre.

O viés de médio a longo prazo é muito importante neste caso. O comerciante deve estar certo da direção do mercado a longo prazo. Ele posiciona suas ordens de acordo e usa flutuações de curto prazo como uma oportunidade para adicionar ao portfólio.

Esta é a única maneira de sobreviver neste jogo a longo prazo.

Aprenda segredos de compromissos de comerciantes.

Autor: Roman Sadowski.

4 comentários.

Gostei de ler este artigo, mas não consegui o link para o site cot mt4 para carregar & # 8211; ainda é o que você usa?

Você pode enviar um link? Obrigado.

Grandes insights sobre como isso é melhor. Mais de uma ferramenta de cronometragem, se estou compreendendo sua intenção, como confirmação de viés de longo prazo. Eu li um pouco sobre COT nestes últimos meses e seus escritos trouxeram um novo nível de compreensão.

Obrigado por levar isso tão fundo quanto você tem no artigo e realmente mostrando como melhor usar dados COT.

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O Guia Oficial de Negociação de Suprimento e Demanda.

Nos últimos anos, um novo tipo de método de negociação tornou-se muito popular entre os comerciantes forex.

A negociação de oferta e demanda é um método de negociação em que a ideia é encontrar pontos no mercado em que o preço tenha feito um forte avanço ou declínio e marcar essas áreas como zonas de oferta e demanda usando retângulos.

O ponto em que o preço fez um forte avanço é marcado pelo comerciante como uma zona de demanda.

Um ponto em que o mercado fez um declínio acentuado é marcado como uma zona de suprimento.

A principal premissa da oferta e da demanda é quando o mercado faz um movimento ascendente ou descendente das grandes instituições, ou seja, os bancos / fundos hedge não conseguem colocar todo o seu comércio no mercado, portanto deixam ordens pendentes para comprar ou vender a zona com a expectativa de que o mercado retornará à zona e o restante de sua posição de negociação será preenchida.

Para um novo operador que na verdade não sabe muito sobre o comércio de oferta e demanda, a teoria que eu expliquei acima parece que faz sentido.

O problema é que a teoria acima está completamente errada com a maneira como o mercado cambial realmente funciona. 90% dos negociantes de oferta e demanda comercializam todas as zonas de oferta e demanda com a ideia de que grandes instituições fazem pedidos pendentes nessas zonas prontas para quando o mercado retornar, isso está errado! as instituições nunca fazem algo assim e, mesmo que enviassem ordens às zonas de oferta e demanda, quando o mercado atinja essas ordens, ele não se moveria para lugar nenhum, pois as ordens pendentes não podem alterar o preço de mercado, apenas ordens de mercado.

Para entender por que isso é necessário, devemos falar sobre algo chamado liquidez.

Índice.

O que é liquidez?

Liquidez é a capacidade de comprar ou vender algo sem causar uma grande mudança de preço.

Sempre que você vê o movimento do mercado é devido a uma falta de liquidez no mercado, não porque há mais compradores do que vendedores como é comumente ensinado na literatura de negociação.

Quando alguém faz uma ordem de mercado, ela remove a liquidez do mercado porque a pessoa que está colocando a ordem do mercado está essencialmente exigindo que seu negócio seja colocado agora, sua ordem de mercado é então comparada com alguém que tem pedido pendente de vender colocado no mercado. .

Se a ordem de mercado for maior do que a ordem pendente oposta, o que acontecerá é que parte da ordem de mercado será preenchida, mas o restante permanecerá não preenchido, então o mercado deve se mover mais alto para buscar pedidos pendentes adicionais para preencher o que estiver permanece da ordem de mercado.

O que isso significa essencialmente é que as ordens pendentes adicionam liquidez ao mercado, porque são as ordens com as quais as ordens de mercado serão correspondidas.

Nós, como comerciantes de varejo, não negociamos em um tamanho grande o suficiente para efetuar o preço de mercado, colocando e saindo de negócios é algo que nunca temos que pensar, para grandes instituições, no entanto, entrar e sair de comércios pode ser um grande problema.

Porque os comércios que eles colocam são tão grandes, um dos principais objetivos de um profissional é obter uma negociação colocada no mercado com o menor impacto possível sobre o preço de mercado, o que significa encontrar lugares no mercado onde existe muita liquidez.

Na maioria das vezes, os bolsões de liquidez tendem a ser encontrados em lugares onde os comerciantes de varejo colocam suas perdas paradas.

A razão pela qual a parada de caçadas é vista com frequência no mercado forex é devido a traders profissionais que colocam grandes operações no mercado, propositalmente empurram o preço para o local das paradas para descarregar grandes negócios todos ao mesmo preço sem mover o mercado de forma significativa. distância.

Você pode realmente trades estas caças da parada, verific meu artigo? Usando o livro da ordem de Oanda para trocar as paradas da caça & # 8221; para um guia passo a passo para encontrá-los e trocá-los.

O que eu quero fazer agora é passar pelas regras principais de negociação de oferta e demanda e explicar-lhe por que elas não fazem sentido dentro do contexto de como o mercado forex realmente funciona.

Por que as instituições esperavam para obter sua ordem?

Antes de entrarmos nas regras em si, pensei em esclarecer a idéia de que as instituições esperam que o mercado retorne à oferta e exija zonas para que suas ordens pendentes sejam colocadas.

Não faz sentido para mim que uma zona que é realmente antiga ainda contenha ordens para comprar ou vender dentro dela. Quer dizer, se há uma zona de abastecimento com três anos e o mercado não voltou a ela nos últimos três anos, realmente faz sentido que os bancos ainda tenham uma ordem pendente de venda colocada na zona?

Além disso, como o banco sabe o que o mercado vai fazer?

Não há nenhuma maneira deles saberem se o mercado vai retornar à zona ou não, então por que eles colocariam um pedido lá em primeiro lugar?

Tempo gasto longe da zona.

Uma das principais regras que os comerciantes de oferta e demanda usam para avaliar se uma zona tem uma alta probabilidade de trabalhar com sucesso é a quantidade de tempo que o mercado gastou fora da zona.

Aparentemente, de acordo com muitos professores de oferta e demanda, quanto mais tempo o mercado estiver longe de uma zona de oferta ou demanda, maior a chance de o mercado girar quando eventualmente retornar.

Isso novamente é um pensamento defeituoso.

Se o banco coloca uma ordem pendente para comprar ou vender quando o mercado retorna a uma zona de oferta ou demanda, eles realmente vão esperar muito tempo para que isso aconteça?

Se compararmos as antigas zonas de oferta e procura (de cor azul), com as zonas mais recentes coloridas de laranja, é fácil ver como as zonas de comércio criadas recentemente são muito mais lucrativas do que as zonas de comércio criadas há muito tempo.

Vamos supor que você tenha negociado as 6 zonas recentes que eu marquei no gráfico, cada zona teria resultado em você ter um comércio bem sucedido, no entanto, se você tivesse negociado as zonas mais antigas, apenas uma delas teria sido vendida. ser um comércio lucrativo.

Então, realmente o exemplo acima nos prova que quanto mais rápido o mercado retornar a uma zona de oferta ou demanda, melhor a chance de ter um comércio bem-sucedido, a zona mais antiga não costuma funcionar muito frequentemente, portanto, é melhor que você coloque negociações na zona que foram criadas recentemente.

A força do movimento para longe.

Uma das regras fundamentais para negociar a oferta e a demanda é: "Quanto mais forte for o afastamento de uma zona, maior a chance de o mercado ter um forte afastamento quando eventualmente retornar".

Em outras palavras, se você marcar uma zona em seus gráficos que tenha um forte afastamento dela, qual a probabilidade de essa zona resultar em você ter uma negociação bem-sucedida depende de quão grande foi o movimento que criou a zona.

Se você marcou uma zona de suprimento que teve uma queda enorme consistindo de múltiplas velas de grande alcance, então de acordo com as regras, a zona tem uma chance realmente alta de trabalhar com sucesso se você decidir negociá-la.

Infelizmente, a probabilidade de uma zona de oferta ou demanda dar-lhe uma negociação bem-sucedida não tem nada a ver com o fato de a saída da zona ser forte ou não.

Quantas vezes você fez uma negociação em uma zona de oferta ou demanda que tem um forte afastamento apenas para ver o mercado voar diretamente quando ele retorna?

Um grande número de vezes eu aposto.

Isso ocorre porque a força do afastamento não tem nada a ver com a força da área.

Ensinamentos comuns de oferta e demanda diriam que esta é uma área forte, mas como você pode ver, o mercado a quebra sem parar! O que me leva ao próximo ponto "# 8230".

Como determinar quais zonas são mais fortes que outras.

Agora, sabemos que um grande afastamento de uma zona de oferta e demanda não tem nenhum efeito sobre a probabilidade de um comércio funcionar de forma lucrativa ou não, precisamos responder à pergunta "como você determina quais zonas são mais fortes?" do que outros & # 8221;

A resposta é onde está a zona em relação à tendência.

Confira esta zona de demanda no gráfico diário de EUR / USD.

Quem trouxe quando o mercado estava aqui embaixo tem muito dinheiro a sua disposição.

Saber por que requer uma compreensão da psicologia do mercado.

À medida que um movimento de tendências aumenta de tamanho, mais e mais pessoas começam a negociar na mesma direção. Olhe para a última gota que você pode ver no gráfico antes da zona de demanda ser criada, no momento desta queda, dezenas de milhares de traders estão começando a ficar aquém de esperar preços mais baixos, para que o mercado possa subir. a partir daqui, alguém precisa entrar no mercado e comprar de todos os operadores que estão em baixa.

Isso exigiria uma quantia enorme de dinheiro, provavelmente centenas, se não bilhões de dólares.

O mercado finalmente pára de cair e começa a avançar mais alto, criando a zona de demanda marcada na imagem. Esta zona tem uma probabilidade muito alta de nos dar um comércio bem-sucedido, não porque tenha um forte afastamento, mas porque sabemos que quem trouxe para cá a criação da zona investiu muito dinheiro no mercado.

Por que alguém gastaria todo esse dinheiro comprando todos os pedidos de venda de milhares de traders se ainda esperassem que o mercado se movesse para baixo?

Este exemplo foi retirado do gráfico de 1 hora do EUR / USD.

Além da mudança de prazo, o exemplo acima é muito semelhante ao que vimos anteriormente. Primeiro, temos uma tendência de baixa significativa que muitas pessoas podem ver facilmente com um único olhar no gráfico, depois temos uma subida forte e quase vertical. Esta subida diz-nos que alguém chegou ao mercado e trouxe todas as ordens de venda dos comerciantes que estão em baixa na tendência de baixa.

Mais uma vez, por que alguém iria ao mercado e compraria de todos os traders em baixa, se esperassem que a tendência de baixa continuasse?

As zonas de oferta e demanda que têm maior probabilidade de trabalhar com sucesso são aquelas encontradas em reversões de tendência. Uma zona de demanda criada depois que o mercado está em baixa por um longo período de tempo tem uma chance muito maior de funcionar de maneira lucrativa do que uma zona de demanda que se forma no início de uma baixa.

É o mesmo para as zonas de abastecimento também.

Em uma situação em que o mercado está subindo há muito tempo, uma zona de suprimento que se forma tarde na vida do movimento tem uma chance muito maior de resultar em um comércio bem sucedido do que uma zona que é criada na base do movimento. acima.

Tempo gasto para retornar à zona.

Existem dois tipos de instituições comerciais participando.

O primeiro é o comércio entre dias, em que o objetivo é capturar muitos pequenos movimentos de mercado ao longo do dia de negociação, gerando pequenos lucros no processo.

Comerciantes bancários que negoceiem durante o dia vão querer que seus negócios sejam feitos durante o dia, nenhum deles vai manter suas posições durante a noite, isso significa que os criadores de mercado terão que trabalhar o preço no mercado para lugares onde esses comerciantes vão querer comprar ou vender.

A maioria desses lugares será de oferta e demanda.

Portanto, se soubermos que esses operadores não farão negócios durante a noite, é provável que, se o mercado não retornar a essas zonas dentro de um prazo de 24 horas, eles tenham uma probabilidade muito menor de trabalhar fora.

Aqui está uma regra para os comerciantes de oferta e demanda que negociam principalmente o gráfico de 1 hora.

Você deve apenas trocar as zonas às quais o mercado consegue retornar em 24 horas.

Se o mercado não retornar a uma zona de oferta ou demanda que você marcou em seus gráficos dentro de 24 horas, a zona se torna inválida, você não a troca novamente, ela não tem mais relevância.

Eu completei muitos testes com isso e descobri que 24 horas é o máximo, qualquer coisa sobre isso e a probabilidade da zona diminuir drasticamente.

Se o seu alguém que troca as zonas de oferta e demanda no gráfico diário, o mercado deve retornar à zona dentro de um mês, se ele não tiver retornado antes do final do mês, o nível se tornará inválido e você não deve tente negociá-lo se o mercado retornar.

A razão para isto é devido ao outro tipo de bancos comerciais participarem na negociação de posições a longo prazo.

Essas posições de longo prazo que os bancos assumem é o que faz com que as tendências ocorram no mercado forex.

As grandes instituições que operam no mercado forex colaboram juntas em que direção o planejamento para assumir o mercado e manipulam os preços, fazendo com que todos pensem que o mercado está indo na direção oposta à maneira pela qual estão indo estar colocando seus comércios.

Aqui está um exemplo que encontrei no USD / JPY.

Primeiro, observe como há uma tendência de queda significativa que já estava em vigor há quase três anos, devido ao fato de o mercado estar em queda há tanto tempo, o que significa que a maioria dos traders no mercado está em baixa.

Então, do nada, conseguimos um movimento repentino. Isso é significativo porque há quanto tempo essa tendência de baixa está em vigor, muitas pessoas estão vendendo USD / JPY devido a essa tendência de baixa, pois o mercado subiu de repente significa que os bancos entraram no mercado e tiraram posições enormes de todos os comerciantes tem vendido.

O que os bancos fazem então é muito inteligente, eles deixam o preço cair, isso faz com que todos pensem que a tendência de baixa vai continuar para que todos eles comecem a vender novamente. Quando o mercado retorna para onde os bancos inicialmente compraram, eles compram novamente, esta segunda rodada de compras juntamente com a liquidação em massa de posições perdidas pelos comerciantes que estavam vendendo é o que faz com que a quebra do mercado seja significativamente maior e comece a tendência.

Quando grandes instituições colocam negócios no mercado, elas querem que todos os seus negócios sejam inseridos em uma faixa de preço relativamente similar, eles não colocarão uma negociação em um local e então esperarão até que o mercado se mova longe de sua primeira negociação antes de colocar a negociação. segundo, é por isso que o mercado retorna à zona de demanda diária mostrada na imagem.

Direção de tendência.

Tal como acontece com a maioria das estratégias de negociação forex, os negociantes de oferta e procura incorporam o conceito de tendência na sua análise do mercado.

O problema é o modo como os comerciantes implementam o conceito de tendência.

Normalmente, o que um trader vai fazer é ir no gráfico diário e ver que, em geral, a tendência é baixa, portanto, eles só vão fazer negócios em zonas de fornecimento, como eles foram orientados a sempre negociar na direção da tendência diária.

Não há nada de errado com isso, desde que o trader esteja retirando os negócios do gráfico diário.

Se o trader está retirando os negócios de um período de tempo mais baixo, então os problemas podem surgir, pois eles sempre estarão negociando contra a tendência no período de tempo em que eles realizam as negociações.

Se, por exemplo, o trader retirar as negociações do gráfico de 1 hora, elas perderão desnecessariamente em operações múltiplas porque acreditam que devem estar sendo negociadas na direção da tendência diária, independentemente de a tendência do gráfico de 1 hora estar em alta.

As pessoas não percebem que a tendência no período em que você coloca todos os seus negócios é aquela que você deveria seguir. Se você negociar o gráfico diário, então você deve estar negociando na direção da tendência diária, se você trocar o gráfico de 1 hora você deve estar negociando na direção da tendência de 1 hora.

Na maioria das vezes, uma grande porcentagem das informações comerciais que você ouve on-line está errada. Não é preciso ser um gênio para descobrir os fatos se você gastar um pouco de tempo analisando os detalhes. Ordens pendentes não podem mover o preço de uma taxa de câmbio, o fato de que a oferta e a demanda são principalmente baseadas nesta suposição significa que Sam Seiden não sabe muito sobre a negociação forex ou propositalmente fornece informações incorretas a fim de obter pessoas para comprar seus cursos de negociação.

Se você começar a negociar as zonas de oferta e demanda usando a versão ajustada das regras estabelecidas neste artigo, tenho certeza que você alcançará uma taxa de sucesso melhor ao negociar as zonas.

Os links abaixo são para todos os outros artigos que escrevi sobre negociação de oferta e demanda encontrados neste site.

32 respostas

Muito obrigado por esclarecer os equívocos do comércio de oferta e demanda.

Suas explicações contêm muito mais ar fresco e cristalino.

Np Tasir, que bom que achou o artigo útil 🙂

Eu tenho um livro que sai no final de dezembro que entra em mais detalhes sobre como o dinheiro realmente é feito nos mercados cambiais e porque os comerciantes de varejo tendem a perder dinheiro.

O livro será enviado para todas as pessoas que se inscreveram para o meu suporte diário e serviço de nível de resistência, vejo que você se inscreveu também, mas não confirmou sua assinatura, se você está interessado em receber este livro junto com os níveis de suporte e resistência Por favor, encontre o e-mail de confirmação e confirme sua assinatura.

Finalmente alguém que também vê a falácia comum S / D. Há anos venho perguntando aos gurus de S / D como as ordens pendentes podem se movimentar em preço.

Você está vendendo seu livro em breve?

Não adianta usar chippy, esses gurus e seus seguidores estão muito interessados ​​em compreender a ilusão dos mercados, e não a realidade, eu tentei dizer aos operadores sobre o segmento panoramia na fábrica forex que pedidos pendentes não podem mudar de preço, mas eles simplesmente ignoraram a mensagem.

Eu liberei o livro no mês passado, eu terei outro livro vindo nos próximos meses que será empacotado com o livro Zero Sum Fun, se você já comprou o Zero Sum Fun você será capaz de obter o próximo livro a um preço com desconto.

Eu tenho negociado por cerca de 8 meses agora, e quando me deparei com este conceito de oferta e demanda, imediatamente chamou minha atenção. Exceto quando comecei a fazer minha pesquisa, de todos os artigos que li, não consegui concordar TOTALMENTE com um deles. Outras pesquisas trouxeram muito o nome Sam Seiden, então imaginei que o verificaria. O homem parece saber do que ele está falando, mas essas perguntas exatas que você respondeu aqui, estavam perdidas no fundo da minha mente. Ele menciona MUITO que as ordens pendentes movem os mercados & # 8230; e eu, como um operador novato, me senti quase estúpido, pensar de outra forma, simplesmente porque ele era um operador de mercado, então ele deve saber do que está falando. Depois de ler isto, percebo que NÃO são as ordens pendentes que movem os mercados, é quando essas ordens são realmente CHEADAS. Eu li muitos comentários e ele confundiu muita gente com isso. Correndo neste artigo realmente me fez perceber isso, ele e muitos outros mentores & # 8221; ou não sabem do que estão falando ou simplesmente não sabem como transmitir a mensagem para as pessoas corretamente. A propósito, eu 100% concordo com tudo neste artigo! Ensina-me a não ser tão ingênuo .. OBRIGADO PESSOAS.

Vocês não têm ideia lol.

Oferta e demanda é tão real. O conceito mais real em negociação. É a única coisa que faz sentido em comprar e vender qualquer coisa. Vocês devem ser os "operadores de confirmação" & # 8221; que estão com medo de negociar contra o preço quando a sua oposição com a força & # 8230; & # 8230; & # 8230; & # 8230; & # 8230;; .. ou talvez você é & # 8220; chart patten & # 8221; comerciantes ou mesmo "fibbonachi & # 8221; os comerciantes lol essas conecções são uma pilha de lixo. Google fibbonachi e depois explicar o que diabos isso tem a ver com a compra e venda de qualquer coisa.

Linhas de tendência, fibbonachi, padrões gráficos são todas ilusões. Eles não existem em comprar e vender, então por que colocá-los em seu gráfico. Negociar não é tão complicado, então por que complicá-lo?

Faça sua pesquisa sobre oferta e demanda corretamente e coloque em prática. Você ficará surpreso e com medo de como isso realmente é real. Única coisa que faz sentido.

Err Kadamash, eu não tenho certeza de onde este ataque veio, todo este site é sobre ensinar às pessoas que comprar e vender é a única coisa para se concentrar no mercado, eu nunca disse que a oferta e a demanda não Não existe, eu disse que a teoria por trás da oferta e da demanda que Sam Sedien promove é incorreta, porque é baseada em um conjunto de suposições que não fazem senese como as coisas funcionam no mercado. Ninguém neste site é um trader de padrões ou um trader de fibonacci, na verdade se você ler o meu artigo de fibonacci você verá que eu digo que os níveis de fibonacci não existem e as pessoas que os usam simplesmente trocam ilusões, então eu não tenho ideia sobre o mercado é estúpido.

Por favor, leia o resto do site, eu garanto que você será o único que está assustado e surpreso, não eu.

Se eu poderia questionar os sites de internet fx o site web mais protegido e confiável o que é, eu quero na direção de começar a dominar em torno do forex pouco a pouco.

Oi, eu acredito que este é um excelente site.

Eu tropecei nisso - eu irei revisitar novamente desde então.

Eu salvei como favorito dele. Dinheiro e liberdade é o melhor caminho para.

mude, você pode ser rico e continuar.

Ajudar outras pessoas.

Eu imagino que você definir o SL do outro lado da zona, quanto pips adicionais você adicionaria?

Sim em torno de 10 & # 8211; 20 pips para zonas no gráfico de 1 hora e 100 pips para zonas no gráfico diário. Isso irá variar dependendo da volatilidade atual e da moeda sendo negociada.

Obrigado por enviar um livro.

Os exemplos de gráficos que você deu são o 1hr TF, o que é ok se você os acompanhou com uma análise de gráficos top-down dos gráficos TF diários e semanais para que saibamos onde estamos no quadro geral.

Enquanto o gráfico da 1h pode mostrar uma zona de fornecimento válida, poderíamos estar sentados na demanda semanal. Nós não sabemos disso em seus gráficos porque você optou por não mostrá-los para nós.

Também Sam Seiden e outros nunca afirmaram que as ordens pendentes per se movem os mercados, é o preenchimento de ordens pendentes que movem os mercados - ele não é estúpido - ele até mesmo diz que disposto & # 8221; compradores e & # 8220; dispostos & # 8221; vendedores para excluir ordens pendentes falsas & # 8230; ..

Em seu artigo, seu foco está nos negociadores dos bancos e grandes instituições que deveriam estar ganhando dinheiro trocando seus patrões, é por isso que isso não faz sentido para você, porque eles estariam trancando um pedaço? do seu capital em uma zona que pode não ser visitada em semanas / meses ou anos. Eu entendo essa lógica.

Mas há outra parte do mercado onde os comerciantes recebem comissões com base no número de pedidos que foram preenchidos em uma faixa de preço específica, e quase sempre eles são parcialmente arquivados devido ao enorme tamanho de seus pedidos antes do mercado. foge deles, então eles devem esperar até que o preço retorne à sua faixa de preço autorizada antes de começarem a descarregar seus pedidos pendentes restantes se tiverem sorte.

By the way, eu não sou um de seus alunos ou filiados a ele em qualquer forma ou forma, mas me senti obrigado a esclarecer as coisas que foram ditas sobre Seiden, como eu assisti a maioria dos seus vídeos gratuitos no YouTube.

Ver onde estamos no quadro maior não tem nada a ver com os pontos que eu estava explicando no artigo, e é por isso que não há imagens dos gráficos diários ou semanais mostrando a análise top down. Ensinar às pessoas por que o afastamento de uma zona de oferta ou demanda não tem efeito sobre se a própria zona funcionará lucrativamente ou não, não exige que eu mostre se estamos em uma zona de oferta ou demanda diária ou semanal porque ela não tem nada a fazer com isso. O artigo não é sobre mostrar a minha análise em negociações tomadas a partir de zonas de oferta ou demanda é sobre explicar por que certas regras não fazem sentido dentro do contexto do mercado.

Se eu estivesse explicando como eu fiz um negócio de uma zona de oferta ou demanda ou por que um negócio não funcionou de forma lucrativa, então eu teria colocado imagens nas zonas de oferta ou demanda nos prazos mais altos, mas desde que eu # 8217; não estou fazendo isso, não faz sentido.

Realmente não faz diferença se as ordens pendentes movem o mercado ou não, elas não são colocadas em zonas de oferta ou demanda prontas para quando o mercado retorna porque os bancos não podem prever antecipadamente se o número de ordens de compra ou venda entrando no mercado após o seu retorno à zona será suficiente para preencher a ordem pendente que eles colocaram lá.

Isso é algo que só pode ser trabalhado quando o mercado está dentro da zona, quando os bancos usarão uma ordem de mercado para colocar seus negócios em ordem.

Esta ideia dos bancos que recebem comissões com base no número de pedidos que recebem é também algo que eu entendo, mas como você disse que isso acontece em uma faixa, não uma zona de oferta ou demanda, que é o que estamos falando.

Qualquer pessoa que tenha lido o meu livro de oferta ou procura lembrará o exemplo no livro dos bancos que obtêm negócios colocados a preços diferentes que estavam próximos uns dos outros. Se os bancos tiverem alguma ordem que precisam ser colocados, o mercado revisitará o intervalo antes de prosseguir na direção da tendência.

Mais uma vez isso acontece em um intervalo, um intervalo não é o mesmo que uma zona de oferta ou demanda.

Você é o verdadeiro MVP !! obrigado pelo material. Eu sempre duvidei das suposições por trás da demanda conhecida e estratégia de fornecimento, então você entrou e limpou tudo. Por favor, continue seu trabalho de educar outros comerciantes. é por causa de caras como você que as pessoas como nós conseguem ver a estrada claramente. Graças ao homem.

Oi amigos e fx mentor grandes artigos de fato e eles são valiosos. Meu desafio é alguns dos artigos que eles nunca mostram imagens que dizem que alguma imagem não pode ser recarregada. Por favor ajude.

Não sei por que as imagens não estão sendo carregadas corretamente, pode ser um problema com o navegador da Internet, qual navegador você está usando?

Usando o Internet Explorer, especialmente o primeiro artigo sobre o guia comercial de oferta e demanda oficial, ele diz que eles são velhos não podem recarregar. você se importa de me enviar todo o documento de todos os artigos através do endereço de e-mail sobre oferta e demanda.

Eu acabei de enviar um e-mail contendo o artigo em formato PDF.

Que pares de moedas você recomendaria para atender a oferta e a demanda?

Qualquer realmente Matt, eu apenas tendem a negociar AUD / USD EUR / USD USD / JPY, porque estas são as moedas que eu estou mais familiarizado, mas você pode usar zonas de oferta e demanda em qualquer moeda.

Ei, eu suspiro & # 6488; Word Book 6461 na oferta e demanda de negociação & # 8221; alguns dias atrás e tinha verificado minha caixa de correio, mas não recebê-lo ainda. Você pode enviá-lo para o meu e-mail? Obrigado.

Oi, o livro que você me enviou esta semana sobre o balanço baixo e alto. Quando tento visualizá-lo, ele diz que o arquivo está danificado ou corrompido, mesmo se eu tentar converter em um formato de trabalho, isso ainda me causa problemas. É o livro de palavras que você enviou em baixos e altos do balanço. Você pode enviá-lo através do meu endereço de e-mail?

Oi, aproveitando todos os seus artigos, muito obrigado.

1) Desde que eu estou me preparando para ir ao vivo eu quero negociar h1 frame, quando você diz para respeitar apenas sup / dem zona por 24 horas eu preciso levar em consideração as sessões de mercado ou apenas começar da zona e continuar com isso?

2) Em sua experiência, concentrando-se em pares AUD / USD EUR / USD USD / JPY, eu teria trades suficientes em um mês para poder gerar mais de 10% ao mês negociando os níveis h1?

Tipo de vagando quantas negociações você levaria diariamente / semanal etc.

Desculpe se pedir muito aqui, mas obrigado antecipadamente e obrigado por estes grandes artigos que você está escrevendo.

Obrigado novamente.

Esses links são, sem dúvida, a melhor explicação da negociação de oferta e demanda que tenho visto.

Esta não é a minha estratégia normal e depois de participar de um seminário de Sam Seiden há alguns anos, eu tentei e falhei. Agora eu sei porque!

A melhor informação sobre negociação de oferta e demanda. Seria possível compartilhar todos os artigos em pdf para facilitar a impressão e a referência.

Eu já fiz o download do seu guia gratuito para fornecer e exigir zonas que funcionem.

Eu vou dar uma olhada em Shaipudin, eu tenho alguns novos artigos de oferta e demanda no caminho para que eu possa fazer um grande PDF contendo todos os artigos, uma vez que estejam completos.

O modo de pensar do ForexMentorOnline tem mérito e valor. Eu sou um comerciante de longo tempo. Eu também estudei Sams e outros vários métodos S / D. O princípio fundamental, como afirmado, soava bem, a noção de "não preenchido" ordens tem mérito. No entanto, algumas das suas metodologias são questionáveis. O ForexMentorOnline simplesmente respondeu a alguns desses conceitos questionáveis. Ele passa a ser amplamente correto nas idéias que ele apresenta em seus escritos. Estude-os. Tente eles. Eu pedi a todos os meus amigos e outros jovens comerciantes que eu encontrasse para ler seu material.

Ainda não existe algo como o proverbial "santo graal". então pare de procurar.

Os comerciantes podem, de fato, encontrar locais onde haja pedidos não preenchidos. O problema é e sempre será os comerciantes não podem determinar a profundidade do mercado. Então, a negociação é e sempre será um esforço difícil. Isso nunca será fácil. Mas ForexMentorOnline nos ajuda a entender um pouco melhor.

obrigado pelo artigo. dá uma compreensão muito melhor do conceito.

Ótimo artigo. Obrigado.

Eu gosto de seus artigos, o melhor que eu encontrei, obrigado 🙂

Anti-Cyber ​​Forense & # 8211; A Arte da Contra-Ciência Forense.

O Estado da Arte de uma Sinfonia Perfeita para Hackers e Code Crackers & # 8211; Cognição Científica a priori Sublimes em Manisfestations da Verdade a posteriori.

Postado em FOREX TEORIA.

Geramos dinheiro fora do caos e da turbulência: Minha versão mais recente dos algoritmos de rede difusa Neural - CodeGenius v2.66 aprimorada com algoritmos SMART.

A verdadeira e melhor definição de especulação financeira / especulativa em jurídico.

“As perdas do valor das ações do Autor foram especulativas em uma ação financeira que não promete a segurança do investimento inicial juntamente com o retorno do valor principal. A especulação é, no entanto, uma informação incompleta da trajetória do projétil que conjectura a flutuação das épocas de expansão e depressão. O fenômeno é, portanto, hipotético, no qual os processos observáveis ​​são bastante estocásticos do que deterministas ”.

“O SP1, em sua evidência, afirma que se a empresa JV fosse capaz de decolar, o valor da ação poderia subir para RM5.00 por ação. Mais uma vez, este Tribunal está vinculado pela decisão do juiz instruído de que a alegada perda de valor da ação é meramente especulativa por natureza. Além disso, a evidência dada pelo SP1 é realmente especulativa, já que o SP1 não era especialista em negociação de ações e o Autor também não chamou um analista de ações para corroborar como o mercado futuro de ações flutua em relação ao índice preço / lucro (P / E). e o equilíbrio oferta / demanda a ser avaliado para a empresa JV que operou por apenas 6 meses. Portanto, os dados acumulados para prever a flutuação do valor do estoque e o movimento da trajetória são incompletos e fracos ”.

Forex Julho122011 Último até 1236pm.

Forex July122011 # 2 Latest Até 1236pm.

Fui mal intencionada e ilegalmente presa pelo magistrado recalcitrante e pela equipe de acusação, incluindo a FIR (a lendária promotora pública de geisha cum), mas de alguma forma consegui passar por tudo isso e criei um novo algoritmo de robô automatizado forex enquanto estava na prisão. Desenvolvi o mais sofisticado algoritmo de robô forex enquanto estive recentemente na Prisão Kajang. Então chamado de algoritmo & # 8220; Justiça e Liberdade & # 8221; agora é usado no meu mais recente robô forex CodeGenius V 2.60.

Lançado o Super Forex Robot: Acabei de testar o meu Expert Advisor, o chamado "CodeGenius v 1.7 & # 8221; aprimorado com as Redes Neurais Mais Recentes (Fuzzy Neural da Análise Estatística Comportamental Caótica do Mercado de Flutuação Hipotética) & # 8211; Preço 1500 USD por licença para pares de moeda ilimitados no Meta Trader 4 Plataforma - 3000 cópias ESGOTADO! SOMENTE 500 cópias à esquerda.

Como configurar:

Basta sentar e esperar por seu dinheiro gerado de caos e turbulência.

Para comprar o meu robô Super Forex, clique no botão Comprar.

Clique no link abaixo para o meu carrinho de compras.

Forex Super Robot (Sistemas Automatizados de Negociação): Como misturar redes auto-organizáveis ​​Kohonen, redes de auto-aprendizado Hebbian, redes Hopfield (com memórias associativas), redes Hamming (mapeamentos de preservação topológica de supermatrizes) com a super famosa teoria do caos .

Controlador de Articulação Fuzzy Cerebellar Model (FCMAC). Ou Nós temos que Criar Novos Algoritmos para fazer o sistema aprender por si mesmo sobre a Teoria do Conjunto Nulo Algorítmico nos Teoremas do Nihili.

Meu terno civil de encontro ao magistrado e aos processos judiciais maliciosos: Para ser representado por advogados proeminentes & # 8211; Limitação de imunidade para os tribunais inferiores se for encontrado mal-intencionado e mal-fé.

Curso de negociação de ação de preço.

Se você quiser saber mais sobre o Price Action Trading, então este curso de negociação de ação forex irá ajudá-lo.

Há muitas dicas práticas de negociação e exemplos sobre como negociar com ação de preço neste curso e, ao final, você realmente terá uma compreensão sólida e, espera-se, se tornará um profissional de ação de preço melhor.

Devo avisá-lo embora que este curso de negociação de ação de preço é bastante longo e você muitos precisam de uma xícara de café & # 8230; mas não é chato.

Essa é minha garantia! Se você acha que é chato e me avise e eu vou contratar um comediante para editá-lo :-).

Para ter uma idéia dos tópicos que esse curso de negociação de ação de preço abrange, basta rolar no índice mostrado acima.

Se você vir algum tópico ou capítulo sobre este índice abaixo que lhe interessa, tudo que você precisa fazer é clicar nesse link e você será levado ao capítulo / tópico imediatamente sem ter que rolar ou ler tudo neste curso.

Depois de passar pelo curso de negociação de ação de preço, você precisará disto:

Índice.

Guarde seus US $ 500 para sua senhorita passar & # 8216; Porque & # 8217; Este curso de negociação de ação de preço é grátis!

Sério Senhoras e Senhores Deputados, meus amigos comerciantes e fiéis forextradingstrategies4u fãs, existem sites forex vendendo cursos de negociação de ação de preço e adivinhem?

Você pode estar fora do bolso por US $ 100 - $ 500 ou mais.

Basta fazer uma pesquisa rápida no Google para cursos de negociação de ação de preço, aqui está o que você verá (acabei de pegar os 3 primeiros que eu vi):

# 1: O Curso de Negociação de Ação de Preço da Nial Fuller, sobre o aprendizado, no momento, o mercado vende por US $ 249.

# 2: Curso de Negociação de Preços da Chris Capre em 2ndskiesforex Vende por $ 315 como você pode ver abaixo:

# 3: E aqui está o curso de negociação de ação de preço Al Brooks em brookstradingcourse que está sendo vendido por US $ 249:

Então você tem duas opções:

você pode comprar os cursos de negociação de ação de preço forex (não há nada errado em comprá-los, se isso é o que você quer, vá em frente, eles são um bom recurso de negociação para você obter se tiver o dinheiro) . Ou se você for esperto (eu tenho que te lembrar disso?) Você pode ler este curso de negociação de ação de preço eu entrei aqui de graça e meu único pedido como meio de apreciação é que você goste, compartilhe, tuite e até mencione este curso de ação de preço, se você tiver a chance de fazê-lo. Isso é tudo que eu peço.

A pergunta precisa ser feita: o meu curso de negociação de ações de preço cobre tudo o que você precisa saber sobre a negociação de ações de preço?

Para que eu responda à sua pergunta, terei que fazer uma pergunta antes que eu possa responder sua pergunta & # 8230;

Você precisa saber tudo sobre como funciona um carro, como funciona o motor, o que faz as rodas girarem, como muda de marcha, como funcionam os freios etc. etc. etc. antes de dirigir ou você só precisa saber como colocar seu vagabundo na cadeirinha e dirigir?

Portanto, este curso de negociação de ação de preço é assim, apenas informa o que você precisa saber e basta dar uma olhada no índice abaixo para ver a variedade de tópicos que esse curso de negociação de ação de preço abrange.

Como você pode ver, é um curso de negociação de ação de preço bastante abrangente e detalhado que oferece tudo o que você precisa saber sobre negociação de ações de preço.

Agora, vamos ao Capítulo 1 do Curso de Negociação de Ação de Preço & # 8230;

Curso de negociação de ação de preço CAPÍTULO 1: INTRODUÇÃO À AÇÃO DE PREÇO.

Para entender realmente a ação do preço, você precisa estudar o que aconteceu no passado. Então, observe o que está acontecendo no presente e, então, preveja onde o mercado irá a seguir.

"Independentemente do que você possa pensar, todos os comerciantes são previsores, assim como o meteorologista".

O meteorologista sabe de onde o vento está soprando, vê os sistemas de alta e baixa pressão se formando sobre a terra, sabe a variação de temperatura, frente fria, frente quente ... você sabe do que estou falando, certo?

Então o que ele faz? Ele vai dizer algo como "amanhã, o tempo em Edinburg será na maior parte nublado, possibilidade ligeira de chuva e possivelmente ensolarado pela tarde."

Como ele sabe disso?

Bem, estudando os dados do passado e vendo qual é a situação atual do clima no momento (e atualmente, sua previsão é mais confiável devido aos modelos avançados de computador e satélites meteorológicos no espaço).

Então os comerciantes são assim…

Se entendermos errado a direção, perdemos dinheiro, acertamos, ganhamos dinheiro. Simples assim. Então, tudo o que você vai ler aqui é sobre tentar obter essa direção antes de você colocar uma negociação.

Antes de começar, estas são algumas palavras que você pode encontrar:

Alta = se o mercado está em alta, diz-se que é alta (tendência de alta).

Bearish = se o mercado está em baixa, diz-se ser de baixa.

Castiçal de baixa = um candelabro que abriu mais alto e fechou mais baixo é dito ser de baixa.

Bullish Candlestick = um candelabro que abriu mais baixo e fechado é dito ser um candelabro de alta.

Risco: Proporção de recompensa = se você arriscar $ 50 em uma negociação para ganhar $ 150, então seu risco: recompensa é 1: 3, o que significa simplesmente que você fez 3 vezes mais do que arriscou. Este é um exemplo de risco: taxa de recompensa.

Agora, o próximo capítulo do curso de negociação de ação de preço, você vai aprender o que é ação de preço e muito mais.

Curso de negociação de ação de preço CAPÍTULO 2: O QUE É O COMÉRCIO DE AÇÃO DE PREÇO?

Esta é a definição básica da negociação de ações de preço:

Quando os negociadores tomam decisões de negociação com base em padrões repetidos de preços que uma vez formados, eles indicam ao trader em qual direção o mercado tem maior probabilidade de se mover.

A negociação de ações de preço utiliza ferramentas como padrões de gráficos, padrões de velas, linhas de tendência, faixas de preço, estrutura de oscilação de mercado como upswings e downswings, níveis de suporte e resistência, consolidações, níveis de retração de Fibonacci, pivôs etc.

Geralmente, os operadores de ações de preço tendem a ignorar a análise fundamental - o fator subjacente que movimenta os mercados. Por quê? Porque eles acreditam que tudo já está descontado no preço de mercado.

Mas há uma coisa que eu acredito que você não deve ignorar: grandes notícias econômicas como as decisões da Taxa de Juros, Non-Farm Payroll, FOMC etc. (Se você estiver interessado em trocar notícias sobre moedas, confira estas estratégias de negociação de notícias: forex estrategia de negociacao, estrategia de negociacao Forex de Non Farm Payroll & amp; a estrategia de negociacao de noticias forex de 1 minuto)

Da minha própria experiência e do que vi, digo que "a divulgação de notícias econômicas pode ser tanto um amigo quanto um inimigo para seus negócios".

Aqui está o que quero dizer com isso:

Se você fizesse uma negociação de acordo com o resultado do comunicado de notícias econômicas, teria muito mais dinheiro em um curto espaço de tempo, porque o lançamento das notícias geralmente tende a aumentar o preço muito rapidamente para cima ou para baixo devido ao aumento do preço. volatilidade. Mas se o seu negócio for contra as notícias, você pode sair com todos os seus lucros eliminados ou uma perda e a perda pode ser enorme porque os mercados podem se mover tão rápido durante esse período que também há a chance de que seu stop loss não seja acionado.

O gráfico abaixo mostra um exemplo do que pode acontecer quando há um importante release de notícias forex:

Esta é uma experiência que nunca vou esquecer. Eu troquei uma configuração de ação de preço perfeita, o comércio foi como eu esperava, mas alguns minutos depois, o mercado caiu muito rapidamente.

Meu stop loss nunca foi acionado no nível de preço em que eu defini inicialmente.

Eu tentei fechar esse comércio quantas vezes eu pude, mas foi impossível fechar porque o preço estava muito abaixo de onde estava o meu preço de stop loss! Price saltou meu stop loss.

Eu apenas fiquei lá e observei impotente. Depois do que pareceu uma eternidade, o negócio foi fechado por um corretor ao pior preço possível, muito abaixo!

Esse comércio único quase acabou com minha conta de negociação. Em vez de perder 2% da minha conta de negociação, perdi quase metade disso. Eu não entendi e não sabia o que aconteceu naquela noite para fazer o mercado se mover assim. Eu não consegui dormir naquela noite.

Mais tarde descobri que se tratava de um grande comunicado econômico que movia o mercado desse jeito.

A partir desse incidente, aprendi a lição, por isso, antes de fazer uma troca, dirijo-me ao calendário de fábrica dos mercados cambiais para verificar se existem notícias de grande impacto antes de colocar os meus negócios.

Se houver uma configuração de comércio válida, mas se eu perceber que o horário está próximo de uma grande notícia a ser anunciada, não entrarei. Há exceções em que assumirei uma negociação se eu perceber que posso colocar meu stop loss atrás de um grande suporte ou nível de resistência.

As notícias de alto impacto são codificadas por cores em vermelho. É isso que você procura (veja a figura abaixo):

Veja o que você pode fazer:

Caso ocorra uma configuração comercial válida, verifique com o forexfactory se há notícias importantes a serem feitas em breve que possam afetar sua negociação. Se houver notícias a serem divulgadas, você pode fazer estas duas coisas: não negocie até depois do comunicado à imprensa e espere até que os mercados comecem a negociar normalmente de novo, ou se você decidir negociar, negocie pequenos contratos porque o mercado é muito volátil quando as notícias é libertado. Isso pode funcionar para você ou contra você. Você precisa saber o que está fazendo durante esses tempos. Se você já tem um negócio que está sendo executado (antes do tempo de liberação de notícias) por algum tempo e em lucro, pense em mover stop loss mais apertado ou tirar alguns lucros dessa mesa caso o mercado vá contra você assim que a notícia for liberada . Em um caso ideal, você teria levado este comércio há um tempo atrás e que o preço de mercado atual está longe do seu preço de entrada no mercado e você já teria trancado alguns lucros e se o mercado se mover na direção do seu negócio após as notícias liberação, você vai ganhar muito dinheiro.

3 razões importantes porque você deve estar negociando a ação do preço.

A ação do preço representa o comportamento humano coletivo. O comportamento humano no mercado cria alguns padrões específicos nos gráficos. Assim, a negociação de ação de preço é realmente sobre a compreensão da psicologia do mercado usando esses padrões. É por isso que você vê os níveis de suporte dos preços atingidos e retorna. É por isso que você vê o preço atingir os níveis de resistência e a queda. Por quê? Por causa da reação humana coletiva! Ação de preços dá estrutura ao mercado cambial. Você não pode prever com 100% de precisão onde o mercado será o próximo. No entanto, com a ação do preço, você pode, até certo ponto, prever onde o mercado pode potencialmente ir. Isso ocorre porque a ação do preço traz estrutura. Então, se você conhece a estrutura, você pode reduzir a incerteza até certo ponto e prever com algum grau de certeza onde o mercado irá em seguida. O Price Action ajuda a reduzir o "ruído" do mercado e os sinais falsos. Se você está negociando com indicadores estocásticos ou CCI, eles tendem a dar muitos sinais falsos. Este também é o caso de muitos outros indicadores. A ação do preço ajuda a reduzir esses tipos de sinais falsos. A ação do preço não é imune a sinais falsos, mas é uma opção muito melhor do que usar outros indicadores ... que são essencialmente derivados dos dados brutos de preços de qualquer maneira. A ação do preço também ajuda a reduzir o "ruído". O que é barulho? O ruído do mercado é simplesmente todos os dados de preço que distorcem a imagem da tendência subjacente ... isso se deve principalmente a pequenas correções de preço, bem como à volatilidade.

Uma das melhores maneiras de minimizar o ruído do mercado é negociar a partir de prazos maiores, em vez de negociar a partir de prazos menores. Veja os 2 gráficos abaixo para ver o que quero dizer:

E agora, compare o ruído do mercado no gráfico 4hr (observe a caixa branca no gráfico? Isso equivale à área do gráfico de 5 minutos acima!):

Prazos menores tendem a ter muito ruído e muitos traders se perdem negociando em prazos menores, porque não entendem que a grande tendência no período de tempo maior é a que realmente impulsiona o que acontece nos prazos menores.

Mas tendo dito isso, eu negocio em prazos menores usando configurações de negociação que acontecem em períodos de tempo maiores. Eu faço isso para entrar em um melhor preço e manter o meu stop loss apertado.

Isso é chamado de negociação de vários períodos e também abordarei isso no Capítulo 16 para mostrar exatamente como isso é feito.

A ação de preço é aplicável a qualquer outro mercado?

A resposta é sim. Todo o material de negociação de ação de preço descrito aqui é aplicável a todos os mercados.

Aqui, estarei falando principalmente em termos de usar a ação do preço no mercado de câmbio, mas como mencionei, os conceitos são universais e podem ser aplicados a qualquer mercado financeiro.

A negociação de ação de preço permite negociar com uma vantagem.

O preço da ação de negociação é sobre a negociação com uma vantagem. O que é uma vantagem comercial?

Bem, coloque simplesmente significa que você precisa negociar quando as probabilidades estão a seu favor. Coisas como:

Negociando com a tendência Negociando com ação de preço Usando padrões de gráficos confiáveis ​​e padrões de velas. Negociação usando níveis de suporte e resistência. Tornando seus vencedores maiores do que seus negócios perdidos Negociando apenas em prazos mais longos Esperando pacientemente pelas configurações corretas de negociação e não buscando operações.

Todos esses tipos de coisas acima ajudam você a negociar com uma vantagem. Eles podem não estar saindo e provavelmente você já ouviu falar sobre isso antes, mas hey ... isso é o que separa os vencedores dos perdedores.

O que a negociação de ação de preço não é.

Negociação de ações de preço não vai fazer você rico ... mas a negociação de ação de preço com gerenciamento de risco adequado pode fazer de você um comerciante rentável. Alguns de vocês passarão por este guia e aprenderão e ganharão muito dinheiro, mas alguns de vocês falharão. É assim que a vida é. A negociação de ações de preço não é o santo graal, mas certamente bate com outros indicadores (a maioria dos quais, muitas vezes, fica atrasada e é derivada da ação do preço!). A negociação de ações de preço não fará de você um sucesso instantâneo. Você precisa colocar nos quintais difíceis, observar e ver como o preço reage e ver esses padrões repetitivos e, em seguida, ter a confiança para negociá-los, então você será recompensado por isso.

Se você é um daqueles que vai aprender com este curso e aplicá-lo à sua negociação forex, meu chapéu para você e eu digo "vá e tenha sucesso."

Chart Time-Por que é importante.

Você precisa de tempo gráfico para entender o Price Action. Para alguns de vocês, pode demorar um pouco para você entender, enquanto alguns de vocês podem aprender muito rapidamente.

Observe a ação do preço do mercado. Volte para o passado e veja como o mercado se comportou. O que o levou a se comportar dessa maneira? Você não pode ser um operador de ação de preço confiante até que você faça isso.

Se você pudesse simplesmente ler os gráficos bem o suficiente para poder entrar nos momentos exatos em que o movimento decolaria e não voltaria, então você teria uma enorme vantagem.

Linhas de tendência, padrões específicos de velas, padrões de gráficos específicos, níveis de retração de Fibonacci & amp; níveis de suporte e resistência… são as ferramentas que uso para negociar.

Se você dedicar tempo e esforço para aprendê-las, não demorará muito para que você comece a entender e veja como todas essas coisas se encaixam.

Comece a aprender a negociar ação de preço nua.

Curso de negociação de ação de preço CAPÍTULO 3: COMPREENDENDO A PSICOLOGIA DE MASSA NA NEGOCIAÇÃO.

Aqui está uma coisa sobre a ação do preço: representa um comportamento humano coletivo ou uma psicologia de massa.

Todos os seres humanos evoluíram para responder a certas situações de determinadas maneiras. E você pode ver isso acontecer no mundo comercial também:

A maneira como muitos comerciantes pensam e reagem aos padrões de forma ... padrões de preços repetitivos que podem ser vistos e depois preditos com um certo grau de precisão, quando o mercado provavelmente irá, assim que esse padrão específico for formado.

Por exemplo, se você vir um nível de resistência maior, o preço atinge o nível e forma uma "estrela cadente" com um padrão de castiçal de reversão de baixa. Você pode, então, dizer com um grau maior de confiança que o preço está indo para baixo.

Porque há tantos operadores observando esse nível de resistência e todos sabem que o preço foi rejeitado deste nível em uma ou duas ocasiões anteriores e que lhes diz que é um nível de resistência e que eles também podem ver que a formação de castiçal de reversão descendente … E adivinha o que eles estarão esperando para fazer?

Eles estarão esperando com suas ordens de venda ... não apenas uma ordem de venda, mas milhares deles, alguns pequenos e alguns grandes pedidos. Mas do outro lado da moeda está aquele comerciante que comprou a um preço baixo e agora que o preço está subindo para o nível de resistência, é aí que a maioria dos seus níveis de lucro estão. Então, uma vez que eles levam seus lucros em torno dos níveis de resistência, isso significa que agora há menos compradores agora e mais vendedores. A balança aponta na direção dos vendedores e é assim que o preço é empurrado para baixo de um nível de resistência.

Porque a ação do preço é uma representação da psicologia de massa ... os mercados são movidos pelas atividades dos comerciantes.

Assim, a negociação de ação de preço envolve a compreensão da psicologia do mercado usando esses padrões e gerando lucro como resultado.

Existem 2 tipos de negociação de ação de preço, a negociação de ação de preço 100% Pura e a negociação de Ação de preço não tão pura. Deixe-me explicar…

Negociação de ação de preço puro.

Negociação de ação de preço puro significa simplesmente negociação de ação de preço de 100%. Nenhum indicador, exceto a ação do preço sozinho.

Negociação de ação de preço não tão puro.

Isto é quando a negociação de ação de preço é usada com outros indicadores e esses outros indicadores fazem parte do sistema de negociação de ação de preço. Esses indicadores podem ser indicadores de tendência, como médias móveis ou osciladores, como indicador estocástico e CCI. (Por favor, não vá pesquisando CCI e indicadores estocásticos!)

Origem da negociação de ações de preço.

Charles Dow é o cara creditado como o pai da análise técnica. Ele veio com a Teoria DOW.

A teoria tenta explicar o comportamento do mercado e se concentra nas tendências do mercado. Uma parte da teoria é que o preço de mercado desconta tudo. Portanto, os analistas técnicos usam gráficos de preços e padrões gráficos para estudar o mercado e não se importam com os aspectos fundamentais do que move os mercados.

Vou abordar isso um pouco mais tarde, quando falo sobre quais são as tendências, como as tendências começam (ou terminam) no Capítulo 5 deste curso de negociação de ação de preço.

CAPÍTULO 4: PREÇO E CARTAS.

Agora, vamos estudar o preço com um pouco mais de detalhes ... isso é para os novatos ... por favor, pule esta seção se você acha que sabe!

O que é o preço?

O preço é valor dado a um determinado instrumento geralmente em termos monetários e seu valor depende da oferta e da demanda.

Se a demanda é maior, o preço aumenta à medida que mais traders começam a comprar e elevam os preços. As zonas de demanda em seus gráficos de preços estão em níveis de suporte, onde os compradores vêm e começam a comprar e aumentam os preços. Se houver um excesso de oferta, o preço cai, pois há mais vendedor e menos compradores. As zonas de suprimento em seus gráficos estão dentro e em torno dos níveis de resistência em que os vendedores entram e diminuem os preços devido ao fato de que há muito poucos compradores.

Toda vez que você abre seus gráficos, tudo o que você vê são as forças de oferta e demanda no trabalho!

Se o mercado está subindo, o que isso lhe diz sobre a demanda e oferta? Isso significa que há muita demanda por esse instrumento.

E se o marketing está caindo, o que isso lhe diz sobre a demanda e oferta? Há menos demanda e muita oferta.

Mas há algo mais sobre o preço ... tem um componente de tempo.

Então o preço de algo hoje não será o mesmo amanhã ou em um mês ou em um ano. Oferta e demanda ao longo do tempo aumentam e diminuem o preço.

Mas como você representa o valor do preço ao longo do tempo, que, por sua vez, indica as forças de oferta e demanda?

Resposta: Você precisa de gráficos de preços: barras de preço, castiçal e gráficos de linhas. Estas são representações gráficas e visuais do preço ao longo do tempo, contando assim uma história sobre as forças de oferta e demanda ao longo de um determinado período de tempo que pode ser de 1 minuto até um mês ou ano.

3 principais tipos de tabelas de preços.

O preço durante um período de tempo é representado graficamente de 3 maneiras principais:

Agora, vou passar por cada um desses três gráficos principais & # 8230;

O que é um gráfico de barras?

O gráfico que você vê abaixo é um gráfico de barras.

Essas coisinhas verdes e vermelhas são chamadas de barras. As barras verdes são barras de alta, o que significa simplesmente que o preço de fechamento é maior do que o preço de abertura dentro de um determinado período de tempo.

Essas barras vermelhas são barras pessimistas e isso significa que o preço de fechamento é menor do que o preço de abertura para esse período de tempo.

O gráfico de barras char é simplesmente parece um "pau" ou barra com 2 botões curtos em ambos os lados. O botão à esquerda é o preço de abertura e o botão à direita é o preço de fechamento.

Depois, há o pavio na extremidade superior e na extremidade inferior. O ponto mais alto ou o nível da mecha na extremidade superior é o preço mais alto alcançado durante um determinado período de tempo ou período, e o ponto mais baixo da mecha inferior é o preço mais baixo alcançado também durante o mesmo período ou período.

O que é um gráfico de velas?

O gráfico abaixo é um exemplo de um gráfico de velas. O gráfico de velas transmite as mesmas informações do gráfico de barras acima, a única diferença é que um gráfico de velas tem um corpo e um gráfico de barras não tem corpo.

Um gráfico de velas ... para colocá-lo de outra maneira é como colocar um corpo sobre um esqueleto do gráfico de barras!

Veja uma comparação do gráfico de barras com o gráfico de velas e observe como eles transmitem as mesmas informações:

Essa é a única diferença entre o gráfico de barras e o gráfico de velas ... é que o gráfico de velas tem um corpo e o gráfico de barras não.

A cor vermelha é mais usada para indicar um castiçal de baixa, o que significa que o preço abriu em alta e fechou mais baixo. Um candelabro verde representa um castiçal de alta e é exatamente o oposto.

O que é um gráfico de linhas?

Este gráfico de linhas abaixo é baseado nas mesmas informações de preço que a barra e o gráfico de velas mostrados acima.

Como você pode ver, mesmo assim, ele transmite as mesmas informações de preço ao longo do tempo, mas não revela tudo.

O gráfico de linhas é um dos menos favoritos dos gráficos para negociação. Um gráfico de linhas é desenhado simplesmente conectando o preço de fechamento, alto ou baixo, e é assim que você obtém a linha em um gráfico. Os gráficos de linhas podem ser úteis para observar o “quadro geral” e encontrar tendências de longo prazo, mas eles simplesmente não podem oferecer o tipo de informação contida em um gráfico de velas.

Destes 3, o gráfico de velas é o mais popular seguido pelo gráfico de barras. Então, a partir de agora, vou me concentrar apenas no gráfico de velas, mas posso acabar usando a barra de palavras para se referir ao padrão de velas, bem como estar ciente disso.

Eu vou falar mais sobre o candelabro (e gráficos de velas), pois este é o pão com manteiga para os comerciantes de ação de preço.

O candelabro

O gráfico de velas teve suas origens no Japão e também pode ser chamado de gráfico de velas japonesas. A cor do gráfico de velas indica se o preço subiu ou desceu em determinado período de tempo, o que significa que as velas são de alta ou de baixa.

Agora, a maioria dos traders prefere definir castiçais verdes como castiçais de alta e vermelha como bearish. E eu gosto que seja assim para mim pessoalmente.

As plataformas de negociação de alguns corretores têm opções onde você pode alterar as cores das velas para qualquer cor desejada. Se você é uma mulher, você pode mudar um castiçal de alta para rosa! E castiçal de baixa para roxo! (Eu nunca vi um castiçal rosa e roxo ainda).

Este candelabro mostrado abaixo é um exemplo de candelabro de alta.

Um candelabro de alta significa simplesmente que o preço abaixou e fechou mais alto após um certo período de tempo, que pode ser de 1 minuto, 5 minutos, 1 hora ou 1 dia etc. O corpo da vela representa o preço à distância do preço de abertura para o preço de fechamento. Quanto mais tempo o corpo, significa que o preço subiu muito depois da abertura. Quanto menor o corpo da vela, significa exatamente o oposto. A alta é o preço mais alto que foi alcançado durante esse período de tempo. O baixo é o menor preço que foi atingido durante esse período de tempo.

Todos esses candelabros mostrados abaixo são castiçais de alta, o que significa que seus preços de abertura foram mais baixos do que os preços de fechamento e, portanto, refletem e a tendência de alta geral no período de tempo em que cada castiçal foi formado:

Agora, o castiçal mostrado abaixo é um exemplo de um castiçal de baixa.

Um candelabro de baixa significa simplesmente que o castiçal abriu a um preço alto e fechou depois de um certo período de tempo:

Todos esses candelabros mostrados abaixo são castiçais de baixa, o que significa que o preço de abertura foi maior do que o preço de fechamento, refletindo, portanto, uma tendência de baixa:

Noções básicas sobre compra e venda de pressão em castiçais.

Você sabia que existem castiçais de alta que são considerados castiçais de baixa e de baixa que são considerados otimistas? Para realmente entender esse conceito, você precisa entender a pressão de compra e venda.

Você vê, cada castiçal que é formado lhe conta uma história sobre a batalha entre os touros e os ursos - quem dominou a batalha, quem ganhou no final, quem está enfraquecendo, etc. Tudo isso é refletido em qualquer castiçal que você vê. O comprimento do corpo do candelabro, bem como a sombra (ou pavio), conta uma história sobre a pressão de compra e venda.

Por exemplo, veja os dois gráficos abaixo:

Olhe para o primeiro castiçal verde no gráfico da esquerda, é um castiçal de alta, certo? Sim. Mas você pode ver que tem um corpo muito curto e um pavio muito longo (cauda).

Diz-lhe que os vendedores (ursos) eram dominantes. Se esse castiçal for formado depois de atingir um nível de resistência, ele será considerado um sinal de baixa, embora seja um castiçal de alta.

Agora, você pode aplicar o mesmo tipo de lógica a todas as outras velas acima e ler a história que cada uma delas está contando.

Se o pavio superior for muito comprido, é simples dizer-lhe que existe muita pressão de venda. Isso significa que o preço foi aberto e foi empurrado para cima pelos compradores, mas depois com o preço mais alto, os vendedores entraram e o empurraram de volta para baixo. Se o pavio inferior for comprido, isso indica que há muita pressão de compra. Os vendedores derrubaram o preço, mas os compradores entraram e elevaram o preço. Se o pavio inferior for curto, ele informa sua pressão mínima de compra. Se o pavio superior for curto, isso indica que existe uma pressão mínima de venda.

E quanto ao comprimento do corpo de castiçais?

Quanto mais tempo o corpo da vela indica pressão de compra ou venda muito forte. Um corpo curto de um candelabro indica pouco movimento de preço e, portanto, menos pressão de compra ou venda.

Às vezes as velas não terão sombras superiores ou inferiores, mas com corpos muito longos. Estes são interpretados da mesma forma que os candelabros padrão, mas são uma indicação ainda mais forte de sentimento de mercado otimista ou negativo. No caso da vela de alta, os preços nunca caem abaixo da abertura. No caso da vela pessimista, o preço nunca é negociado acima do aberto. Ver abaixo:

Agora, até agora, analisamos castiçais individuais ... e se você combinar mais de um castiçal? O que isso mostra para você?

Bem, uma coisa importante que o grupo de candelabros pode mostrar é quão forte ou fraco é um movimento de alta ou baixa. Eles também podem dizer se o movimento de alta ou de baixa está enfraquecendo. A palavra usada para descrever tal situação é momentum.

A tabela abaixo mostra 3 candlesticks de baixa em uma tendência de baixa, cada um com comprimento decrescente e comprimentos de corpo.

Em uma situação de tendência de baixa, quando você vê tal acontecimento, é um sinal de que a tendência de queda está enfraquecendo.

E se isso acontecer ao redor dos níveis de suporte, você deve se sentar e prestar atenção e também observar os castiçais de reversão de alta, que lhe darão a confiança para comprar!

O gráfico a seguir mostra um exemplo de redução do momentum descendente à medida que o preço se aproxima dos níveis de suporte.

O que você verá é que as velas anteriores tenderão a ser mais longas e à medida que o preço se aproxima do nível de suporte, as velas começam a ficar mais curtas:

Este gráfico seguinte mostra 3 velas de alta em tendência de alta, cada uma com comprimentos decrescentes. Em uma tendência de alta, quando você vê tal acontecendo em torno dos níveis de resistência, você deve tomar conhecimento. Também observe padrões de castiçais de reversão de baixa a se formar. Isso lhe dará a confiança para vender:

Aqui está um exemplo de um momento de alta decrescente em uma tendência de alta e, em seguida, o preço cai logo depois disso:

Observe (no gráfico acima) como os castiçais de alta tiveram comprimentos crescentes e, em seguida, diminuíram gradualmente à medida que o preço subiu, seguido por uma grande queda / movimento descendente?

Esse é o momento do preço. Toda vez que você olha para seus gráficos, você precisa estar ciente disso. Muito importante!

Wicks Candlestick, porque eles são importantes.

As mechas de castiçais junto com o corpo contam uma história. Um pavio que pode ser chamado de sombra ou cauda de um candelabro é uma linha situada acima e abaixo do corpo do candelabro.

Como se formam as mechas de velas (caudas / sombras) e o que elas significam?

Bem, eles são formados por causa de uma mudança no sentimento do mercado. Para um pavio superior, o preço está subindo e, em seguida, a percepção do mercado é alterada pelos comerciantes e, em seguida, o preço é empurrado para baixo para o aberto pelos vendedores. É assim que a sombra superior é formada. Para a sombra mais baixa, o preço está em baixa, mas o sentimento do mercado muda e o preço é empurrado para cima, para fechar a compra dos touros. É assim que um pavio ou sombra inferior é formado.

Folgas mais longas indicam aumento da mudança no sentimento do mercado:

Qual é o significado de Wicks Candlestick?

As mechas de castiçal com longas sombras superiores geralmente ocorrem quando uma tendência de alta está perdendo força. Longas sombras menores ocorrem quando a tendência de baixa está perdendo vapor.

Ok, esse não é o fim do capítulo 4 do curso de negociação de ação de preço - agora vamos ao capítulo 5, onde você aprenderá sobre as tendências.

Curso de negociação de ação de preço CAPÍTULO 5: TENDÊNCIAS.

Quando você tem o preço se movendo ao longo do tempo devido à oferta e demanda, isso cria tendências. Esta seção é uma discussão sobre tendências, como elas formam e quantos tipos de tendências e que tipo de estrutura as tendências têm.

É importante que você entenda a estrutura das tendências para que você não dependa de nenhum indicador para dizer se a tendência é positiva ou negativa, pois entende o que é uma tendência, a estrutura de uma tendência, quais sinais procurar para lhe dizer que uma nova tendência pode estar começando e um final anterior é um conhecimento chave que você precisa como um operador de ação de preço.

E você só precisa usar a ação do preço para dizer se uma tendência é para cima, para baixo ou para os lados.

Como mencionei acima, existem três tipos de tendências. Em termos simples, uma tendência é quando o preço está se movendo para cima, para baixo ou para os lados.

Então, quando o preço está subindo, isso é chamado de tendência de alta. Quando o preço está em baixa, é chamado de tendência de baixa. Quando o preço está se movendo para o lado, é chamado e lateralmente.

Agora, cada um desses três tipos de tendência tem uma estrutura de preços determinada que informa se o mercado está em tendência de alta, tendência de baixa ou tendência lateral.

Essas estruturas são derivadas da Teoria da Dow. Mas vou explicar aqui brevemente.

A Teoria das Tendências da Dow Resumida.

A teoria em termos simples diz que:

when price is in an uptrend, prices will be making increasing higher highs and higher lows until a higher low gets intercepted, then that signals the end of the uptrend and the beginning of a downtrend. For downtrend, prices will be making increasing lower highs and lower lows until a lower low is intercepted and that signals an end of the downtrend and a beginning of an uptrend.

Structure of An Uptrend (Bull) Market.

With an uptrend market, prices will be making higher highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL), see chart below for clarity:

Structure of A Downtrend (Bear) Market.

Prices will be making Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL). The chart shown below is a really ideal case, see chart below for clarity:

But you know that in reality, the market is not like that, it’s more like this chart shown below:

The chart above shows an initial downtrend and along the way there is a false uptrend which does not last and price moves down and then eventually another uptrend moves is happening because another lower high has been intersected(which signals end of downtrend).

This is how you use price action to identify trends. You should know this stuff.

Because the market is not perfect when these trends are happening, you should develop the skill to judge when a trend is still intact or when a trend is potentially reversing. And it’s pretty much price intersecting highs or lows.

Structure Of A Sideways/Ranging Market.

For a ranging market, in an ideal scenario, you will see price moving in a range between a support and resistance level like shown below:

But what you see in the real world is not ideal as above, it’s more like this as shown below:

CHAPTER 6: REVERSALS & CONTINUATION.

A reversal is a term used to describe when a trend reverses direction. For example, the market has been in an uptrend and when price hits a major resistance level, it reversed and formed a downtrend. That’s what reversal means.

Now where can reversals happen? The following are the major areas where price reversals do happen:

Here’s an example of price reversing form a support level and went up and then later broke it and went down. Now that broken support level acts as resistance level when price came for a re-test of the level and sent the price tumbling down:

Now, what about continuation then?

Well, in simple terms, continuation means that there is a main trend, for example an uptrend, that is happening… and you will notice that price slows down and maybe consolidates for a little while and may fall back down a little…it is like a minor downtrend in a major uptrend move called a downswing in an a major uptrend.

So when that ends and price resumes in the original uptrend direction then that is called a continuation. The chart below makes this concept a bit more clearer:

So the big question is: how to spot trend continuity and execute trades at the right time?

The secret is in identification of specific chart patterns as well as very specific candlesticks patterns and you will discover more on the Chart Patterns and Candlestick Patterns section of this course.

Top 3 reasons why it is so important for you knowing reversal points/levels as well as understanding trend continuity patterns and signals:

You don’t want to be buying near or at a resistance level (which is a reversal point). You don’t want to be selling at near or at a support level (which is a reversal point). You don’t want be buying when the trend is down and you don’t want to be selling when the trend is up that’s why you need to know about continuation charts and candlestick patterns which will allow you to trade with the trend. (There are exceptions though when you can trade against the main trend like that like in trading channels…see Chapter 9 of this price action trading course where it talks about: How To Trade Channels)

CHAPTER 7: UNDERSTANDING MARKET SWINGS.

Market Price moves in swings . A price swing is when markets moves like what a wave does.

So in an uptrend, price will be making higher highs and higher lows like the figure shown below:

So in an uptrend, price moves in swings like this chart shown below:

And in a downtrend, price will be making lower highs and lower lows:

So in a downtrend, price moves in swings like the chart shown below:

3 Reasons Why It’s So Important For You To Understand Market Price Swings.

If you want to be really good price action trader, you have to understand this concept of how price moves in swings. This is especially true if your style of trading is trend trading or swing trading.

Because if you don’t understand how price moves in swings, this is what you are going to end up doing:

You will execute trades at the very wrong spot! For example, in a downtrend, you will sell when the market is just doing an upswing! Não é bom! Which means, you will get stopped out or you need to put in a large stop loss. Large stop loss does not necessarily mean large risk if you do position sizing based on the stop loss distance. But if you don’t then that’s a large risk you are taking. If you have a large stop loss, then you’ve got to wait a while before the market makes downswing before you to start seeing profits on your trade.

Here’s an example of what I’m talking about:

It’s really not a good situation to be in. Every traders wish is that “the moment a trade is placed, it goes to profit immediately.” But we know the market is not like that, sometimes that happens, and sometimes it doesn’t.

That’s the nature of the market.

So in an uptrend, you should be looking to buy on the downswing. In a downtrend, you should be looking to sell on an upswing.

And the best way for doing that is by using Price Action (reversal candlesticks) as shown below:

Now, these chart below is what actually happens in real life trading environment:

CHAPTER 8: HOW TO TRADE SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS.

Nothing is more noticeable on any chart than support and resistance levels. These levels stand out and are so easy for everyone to see! Por quê? Because they are so obvious.

As a matter of fact, support and resistance trading is the core of price action trading.

The key to successful price action trading lies in finding effective support and resistance levels on your charts.

Now, in here, I talk about 3 types of support and resistance levels and they are:

The normal horizontal support and resistance levels that you are probably most familiar about. Broken support levels become resistance levels and broken resistance levels become support levels. Dynamic Support and Resistance Levels.

Now, let’s look at each in much more detail.

Horizontal Support and Resistance Levels.

These are fairly easy to spot on your charts. They look like peaks and troughs.

The chart below is an example and shows you to trade them:

How To Find Horizontal Support And Resistance Levels On Your Chart.

If price has been going down for some time and hits a price level and bounces up from there, that’s called a support level. Price goes up, hits a price level or zone where it cannot continue upward any further and then reverses, that’s a resistance level.

So when price heads back to that support or resistance level, you should expect that it will get rejected from that level again. The use of reversal candlestick trading on support and resistance levels becomes very handy in these cases.

Significant Support & Níveis de Resistência

Not all support and resistance levels are created equal. If you really want to take trades that have high potential for success, you should focus on identifying significant support and resistance levels on your charts.

Significant support and resistance levels are those levels that are formed in the large timeframes like the monthly, weekly and daily charts.

And when price reacts to these levels, they usually tend to move for a very long time.

Here’s an example of NZDUSD that hit a resistance level on the monthly timeframe and made a 1,100 pips move down to the next significant support level and price can now be seen bouncing up from that support level:

Now, here’s the technique I use to trade setups that happen in larger timeframes:

I switch to smaller timeframes like the 4hr & the 1hr, 30min, 15min and even the 5min and wait for a reversal candlestick signal for my trade entries. This is so that I can get in at a much better price level as well as reducing my stop loss distance.

That’s what’s multi-timeframe trading is all about.

Support turned Resistance Level And Resistance Turned Support Level.

Now, the next on is this thing called Support turned Resistance Level And Resistance Turned Support Level.

There are many traders that don’t realize that usually, in a downtrend, when a support level has been broken to the downside, it often tends to act as a resistance level. Here is an example shown on the chart below:

So when you see such happening, you should be looking for bearish reversal candlestick to go short. As a matter of fact these “R’s” are the upswings in a downtrend.

Similarly, in an uptrend you will also see such happening where Resistance levels get broken and when price heads back down to these, they now will act as support levels…Here’s an example:

Look for bullish reversal candlestick around these type of resistance turned support levels as your signal to buy.

Can you see how the need for using other indicators is diminished once you understand how easy is to spot such trading setups like these?

CHAPTER 9: HOW TO TRADE PRICE CHANNELS.

What is a channel? And How Do You Trade A Channel? This section is about that.

The path price follows and the area enclosed within it is called the price channel.

The fundamental principle of how a channel form is based on support and resistance. Why price does that, I don’t know… but consider it as supply and demand at work.

There are 3 major types of channels:

This is what a downtrend channel looks like and how to trade it:

This is what an uptrend channel looks like and shows how you can trade it:

This is what a sideways channel looks like and how you can trade it:

Sideways channels (or horizontal channels) are little bit different from uptrend and downtrend channels because with uptrend and downtrend channels, you would require 2 points to draw trendlines and wait for price to touch them later on before you take a trade because the trend lines are at an angle.

But with sideways/horizontal channels, you can actually start trading the setup at point #2 which can be both a resistance or support level based on the fact that a prior resistance or support level is already visible and you should expect price to bounce from those levels. Look for reversal candlesticks to buy or sell when you see such setups happening.

General Rules For Trading Channels.

If you buy or sell on the other side of the channel, you wait for price to reach the other end of the channel to take profit or exit the trade. Place your stop loss on just outside the channel or just above the high of the candlestick (for a sell order) or just below the low of the candlestick (for a buy order) that touched the channel and shows signs of rejection. This candlestick can also be a reversal candlestick. You may also decide to take half the profits off as price is in the middle of the channel for a profitable trade.

CHAPTER 10: NINE (9) PROFITABLE CHART PATTERNS EVERY TRADER NEEDS TO KNOW.

There’s a difference between chart patterns and candlestick patterns . Chart patterns are not candlestick patterns and candlestick patterns are not chart patterns:

Chart patterns are geometric shapes found in the price data that can help a trader understand the price action, as well make predictions about where the price is likely to go. Candlestick patterns on the other hand can involve only one single candlestick or a group of candlestick which have formed one-after-the other in regard to how they form in relation to one another in terms of their body length, opening and closing prices, wicks(or shadows) etc.

Not knowing what chart patterns are forming can be a costly mistake . If you are like that, this is your opportunity to get back on track.

Why costly mistake? Because you are completely unaware of what is forming on the charts and you end up taking a trade that is not in line with what the chart pattern is signalling or telling you!

These are the 9 chart patterns you will learn about today:

Triangle chart patterns-symmetrical, ascending and descending (3 patterns) Head and shoulders and Inverse Head and Shoulders (2 patterns) Double Bottom and Double Top (2 patterns) Tripple Bottom and Tripple Top (2 patterns)

But first up, I am going to talk about triangle chart patterns.

Symmetrical Triangle.

There are 3 types of triangle chart patterns and the chart below shows the differences between each very clearly:

Now, lets starts with the symmetrical triangle pattern first.

Is A Symmetrical Triangle Bullish Or Bearish Chart Pattern?

The Symmetrical triangle chart pattern is a continuation pattern therefore it can be both a bullish or bearish pattern:

What does this mean then? Well, if you see this pattern in an uptrend, expect a breakout to the upside. See an example below:

If you see a symmetrical triangle pattern form in a downtrend, then expect a breakout of this pattern to the downside like this one shown below:

How To Draw A Symmetrical Triangle.

You will see price moving up and down but this up and down movement is converging to a single point . You need a minimum of 2 peaks and 2 troughs to draw the two trendlines on both sides. It will be only a matter of time before price breaks out of the pattern and either moves up or down.

Two Simple Ways To Trade The Symmetrical Triangle.

#1: Trade the Initial Breakout.

The best way is to confirm that the breakout actually happens with a candlestick before placing your order. What I do I is for example, say I’m watching a symmetrical triangle form in the 4hr charts and I know that soon a breakout will happen. I then switch to the 1hr chart to wait for the breakout to happen. If a 1hr candlestick has broken the triangle and closed below/above it, that’s my trade entry signal. So I will place a pending buy stop/sell stop order to catch the breakout from there.

Often I want to make sure that the 1hr candlestick closes outside of the triangle before I enter a pending buy stop or sell stop order to capture the move that happens to avoid false breakouts while the candlestick has not closed yet.

But here’s the problem with trading triangle breakouts, see chart below:

I don’t like trading breakouts like the one shown above and here’s why:

The stop loss distance is too large. I’d prefer to enter trades with breakout candlesticks that are close to the trend lines that have been broken. I often see that such breakout of extremely long candlesticks are not sustainable and price will often tend to reverse after such candlesticks as can be seen by the chart above …notice that after the breakout candlestick, there was one bearish green pin bar and then for the next 4 candlesticks afterward, the price went down . This is what tends to happened with such long breakout candlesticks. So if you entered a buy order using that long breakout candlestick above, you would have to wait a while for your trade to turn profitable.

#2: Trade the retest of the trendline that is broken.

The second way to enter is to wait for a retest of the broken trendline in the triangle pattern then either buy or sell. This may also be handy if you had an extremely long breakout candlestick on the initial breakout, you best option is to wait for a retest of the breakout trendline then if that happens you enter.

Stop loss Placement Options On Symmetrical Triangle Pattern.

Here are 3 ways on how to place stop loss on triangle patterns, which include symmetrical, ascending and descending triangle patterns which you will learn next. The stop loss placement techniques here are applicable to all triangle patterns so take note of that:

Ascending Triangle Chart Pattern.

And ascending triangle pattern looks like this chart shown below:

And this is how a real chart looks like:

Is Ascending Triangle Pattern Bullish Or Bearish?

It is considered a bullish continuation pattern in an existing uptrend. So when you see this forming in an uptrend, expect a breakout to the upside.

However, it can also be a strong reversal signal (bullish) when you see it form in a downtrend.

Opções de colocação de perda de parada.

You can use the strategies given in symmetrical triangle.

Take Profit Options.

I prefer to target previous resistance levels as my take profit target.

Or as shown on the chart below, you can use the “x” pips distance as your take profit target. Another way to do it would be say 3 times the “x” pips or 2 times the “x pips” distance. That should give you your profit target level(s).

Descending Triangle Chart Pattern.

Important things to note about the descending triangle chart pattern: The descending triangle chart pattern is characterized by a descending resistance levels and a fairly horizontal support levels converging to a point until a breakout happens to the downside as shown below:

And this is how a descending triangle looks like on a chart shown below:

Is Descending Triangle Pattern Bullish Or Bearish?

It is a bearish chart pattern that forms in a downtrend as a continuation pattern.

However, this pattern can also form as a bearish reversal pattern at the end of an uptrend.

Therefore regardless of where it forms, it’s a bearish chart pattern.

How to Trade The Descending Triangle Formation.

Similar to the other 2 triangle patterns, you can either trade the initial breakout or wait to see if price reverses back to test the broken support level and then sell.

Note: with a triangular pattern, I often prefer to wait for a candlestick to breakout and close outside of the pattern before I enter a trade. This helps to reduce false breakout signals.

But there will be times when I will just trade the breakout with a pending sell stop order just a few pips under the support level to catch the breakout when it happens but when I do that, I sit and watch the close of the 1hr candlestick to make sure that it does not close above the support line (if that happens, it may mean a false breakout).

And then there’s the issues of extremely long breakout candlesticks again like this:

As mentioned previously:

when you have such extremely long breakout candlesticks like that, better to sit and wait to see if price will reverse and get back up to the support level that was broken ( a retest) which will now be acting as a resistance level and then sell when that level is touched.

How To Take Profit.

I prefer to use previous support levels, lows or troughs and use those as my take profit target level.

Another method of take profit that is commonly used is to measure the height of the triangle and if the height is say 100 pips then that is your take profit target. The chart below should give you a clear idea of how it’s done:

Note that on the chart, the descending triangle formed the end of an uptrend.

Head & amp; Shoulders Chart Pattern.

The head and shoulder chart pattern is a bearish chart pattern. This is what a head and shoulder reversal pattern looks like:

Important things to note about the head and shoulder pattern:

The head and shoulders pattern is a bearish reversal pattern and when found in an uptrend, it signals the end of the uptrend.

Here’s how this pattern forms:

Eventually, the market begins to slow down after going up for some time and the forces of supply and demand are generally considered in balance. Sellers come in at the highs (left shoulder) and the downside is probed (beginning neckline.) Buyers soon return to the market and ultimately push through to new highs (head.) However, the new highs are quickly turned back and the downside is tested again (continuing neckline.) Tentative buying re-emerges and the market rallies once more, but fails to take out the previous high. (This last top is considered the right shoulder.) Buying dries up and the market tests the downside yet again. Your trendline for this pattern should be drawn from the beginning neckline to the continuing neckline.

Here’s another example:

Aqui está mais um:

How To Trade The Head & Shoulder Chart Pattern.

The following chart below makes it much clearer.

How To Calculate Profit Targets.

I use previous lows or troughs to set my take profit target. However, you can also use the distance in pips between the neckline and the head as your take profit target level. So if the distance is 100 pips, then if you trade the initial breakout, you set it at 100pips take profit target level like the chart shown below with the two blue lines:

Inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern.

You will also see this pattern, though not as popular, it’s good to keep an eye out for it. The inverse head and shoulder pattern is bullish reversal candlestick pattern and just the opposite of head and shoulders pattern.

Here’s what it look like on the chart shown below:

And this is what it looks like on a real chart:

How to Trade the Inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern.

You can buy the initial breakout of the neckline or wait for the re-test, that is wait for price to breakout and then come back down to test the broken neckline and then buy. Use bullish reversal candlesticks for trade entry confirmation if you are waiting to buy on re-test.

I often tend to place my profit target on previous highs. One method of calculating profit target is to measure from the head up to the trendline and what the distance in pips is your profit target. See the two blue vertical lines in the chart above.

Double Bottom Chart Pattern.

A double bottom chart pattern is bullish reversal chart pattern and when it forms in an existing downtrend, it signals a possible upward trend.

Here’s what It look like:

This is what a double bottom pattern looks like on a real forex chart:

3 Ways on How To Trade Double Bottoms.

#1: Trade the breakout of the neckline:

Many traders once they see that the double pattern has formed and the neckline is being tested, that’s when they get in as soon as a breakout happens.

#2: Wait to enter on retest of Broken Neckline.

Then there are other groups of traders that like to enter when price reverses back down to touch the neckline, which now would act as a support level. Once it hits that neckline level they buy.

#3: Buy on bottom 2. In this way, you have the potential to ride the trade all the way up if the neckline is intercepted. You should consider buying on bottom 2 as buying on a support level…as a matter of fact, that it what is is! Look for bullish reversal candlestick patterns for trade entry signals.

Take Profit Target levels.

If you buy on bottom 2, you can use the neckline as your take profit level, or any previous highs above that as well. If you buy the breakout of the neckline, use the distance between the bottom and the neckline in pips to calculate your profit target. See chart below for example:

Double Top Chart Pattern.

A double top chart pattern is a bearish reversal chart pattern and when found in an uptrend and once the neckline is broken, that confirms a downtrend. The double tops are very powerful patterns and if you get into a trade at the right time, you stand to make a lot of profits when the breakout happens to the downside .

Here’s an example of a double top Chart Pattern shown below:

How to Trade the Double Top Chart Pattern.

There’s 3 ways to trade the double top chart pattern:

#1: Trade the initial breakout of the neckline.

#2: The technique I like most to take a sell trade on Peak 2 when I see a bearish reversal candlestick. And if price moves down and intersects the neckline and continues to do down further, your profits are dramatically increased.

#3: You can wait for price to go back up to test the broken neckline (which would now act as resistance level) and when you see a bearish reversal candlestick pattern, go short (sell) as this example below shows:

This is how it would look like in a real forex chart:

How to Take Profit On The Double Top Chart Pattern.

Use previous low (support levels) to set take profit targets. Or another option would be to measure the distance between the neckline and the highest peak (the range) and use that difference in pips as take profit target if you are trading the breakout from the neckline.

Triple Bottom.

I do not see triple bottoms forming quite as often…Regardless of that, you should have an idea of what it looks like:

Triple bottoms are bullish reversal chart patterns, which means if found in a downtrend and this pattern starts to form and once the neckline is broken and price head up, this confirms that the trend is up.

Here’s another example of a triple bottom shown below:

How to Trade The Triple Bottoms.

Many traders wait until the neckline is broken and trade the initial breakout. Others will wait for a retest of the broken neckline to enter a buy order once they see a bullish reversal candlestick… I prefer to take trades on the 3rd bottom by watching the price action. If I see a bullish reversal candlestick pattern, I buy. Why do I do that? Well, if price goes up and breaks the neckline and goes upward, I would be in a lot more profit than if I bought the breakout of the neckline.

Profit taking methods would be similar to double bottom chart pattern mentioned previously…

The Triple Top Chart Pattern.

Triple tops are the opposite of triple bottoms and they are bearish chart patterns. They rarely occur but its good to know what they look like.

Triple tops when found in an uptrend, it signals the end of the uptrend when the neckline is broken and price heads down.

How To Trade The Triple Top Chart Pattern.

Some conservative traders wait for the neckline to be broken to trade that breakout. Some will most likely wait for retest of neckline and then sell. I prefer to take trades on Peak 3 and if the trade breaks the neckline and goes all the way down, I have a lot more profit to make. The key to taking a good trade on peak 3 is by looking for bearish reversal candlesticks. These are your signals to go short. If you take a trade at peak 3, you profit target can be the neckline. Or if you take a trade on the breakout of the neckline, measure the distance in pips between the neckline and the highest of the 3 peaks and use that distance to calculate your profit target. Or you can use a previous low and use that as your take profit target level as well.

CHAPTER 11: TEN (10) PROFITABLE CANDLESTICK PATTERNS EVERY TRADER NEEDS TO KNOW.

There are lots of candlesticks, but out of all of them only 9 that you really need to know. Por quê? Because there are very popular are really powerful so why waste time with the rest?

When these candlesticks form at support and resistance levels or Fibonacci levels they are great trade entry signals.

#1: The Doji Candlestick Patterns.

The doji candlesticks are single (individual) candlestick patterns. There are 4 types of doji candlesticks as shown below:

The doji cross can be both considered a bullish or bearish signal depending on where it forms. The gravestone doji is considered a bearish reversal candlestick when formed in an uptrend or in a resistance level. The dragonfly doji is considered a bullish candlestick pattern when formed in a downtrend or in a support level. The long-legged doji shows a period of indecision by bulls and bears and depending on where it forms (uptrend/resistance level=bearish signal, downtrend/support level=bullish signal) it can be considered a bearish or bullish signal.

#2: The Engulfing Candlestick Patterns.

The engulfing patterns are 2 candlestick patterns. For a bullish engulfing pattern, you will see that the first candle is bearish followed by the second candle which is very bullish and this 2 nd candle completely engulfs.

Bullish Engulfing-when formed in a support level or in a downtrend, this can signal that the downtrend is potentially ending. Bearish Engulfing-when formed in an uptrend or or in a resistance level, this is a signal that the uptrend may be ending.

#3: Harami Candlestick Patterns.

The harami is a 2 candlestick pattern and can be bullish or bearish.

Bullish Harami - this is a 2 candlestick pattern. The first candlestick is a very bearish candlestick followed by a bullish candle, which is quite short and is completely covered by the shadow of first candle. When you see this in a downtrend or in an area of support, this will be your bullish(buy) signal. Bearish Harami is the exact opposite of bullish harami. When you see this pattern form in a resistance level or in an uptrend, this is a bearish reversal signal and may indicate that the uptrend is ending and you should go short (sell).

The easiest way to remember the harami patterns is to think about a pregnant woman and a baby inside her tummy:

#4: Dark Cloud Cover Candlestick Pattern.

The dark cloud is another bearish reversal candlestick pattern formation consisting of 2 candlesticks. The first one is a bullish candlestick showing a strong upward momentum but when the second candle forms, it shows a completely different story…its bearish and it closes at about the middway point of the first candlestick.

When you see the dark cloud cover candlestick pattern in an uptrend or in level of resistance, it’s a bearish reversal signal and you should be thinking to go short (sell).

#5: Piercing Line Candlestick Pattern.

The piercing line is the opposite of dark cloud cover. You may see this in a downtrend or forming at a support level. The first candlestick is very bearish and when the 2 nd candle forms, it tells a completely different story, it’s bullish. This tells you that the bears are losing steam and that the bulls are gaining strength to potentially move the market price up.

The second bullish candlestick should close somewhere up the mind-point of the first candlestick.

So when you see the piercing line pattern forming at support levels or in a downtrend market, take note as this is a potential bullish reversal signal so you should be thinking of going long (buying).

#6: Shooting Star Candlestick Pattern.

This is one of the most reliable candlesticks and obviously one of the most popular due to the fact that they are so easy to spot on any chart.

The shooting star is single candlestick pattern and when it forms in an uptrend or in a resistance level, then it is considered as a bearish reversal pattern and so you should be looking to sell.

Note: the shooting star is sometimes called the bearish hammer, inverse hammer, inverted hammer or bearish pin bar. They all mean the same and refer to the shooting star candlestick pattern.

#7: Hammer Candlestick Pattern.

The hammer candlestick is a single candlestick pattern pattern and its is considered a bullish reversal candlestick pattern and it’s the opposite of the shooting star candlestick pattern.

It has a very long tail and a short upper wick or none at all.

When it forms in a downtrend or at support levels, you should take note…this is a very high probability bullish reversal candlestick pattern and you should be looking to go long (buy).

#8: Hanging Man Candlestick Pattern.

Now, what happens if you see in an uptrend a candlestick that looks like a hammer? Is it still a bullish signal? Well, in that case , this candlestick is a hanging man and its not a bullish signal. Here’s how it looks:

Now, the hanging man, is exactly like hammer but the only difference is that it must form in an uptrend.

When it forms in an uptrend or in resistance levels, it tells you that there is a possibility that the uptrend is ending so you should be looking to go short (sell). Veja o gráfico abaixo:

#9: Railway Track Candlestick Patterns.

The railway track pattern is a 2-candlestick pattern and there’s a bearish and bullish railway track candlestick pattern. A notable feature of railway tracks is that they look like paralled railway tracks …and both candlesticks should be of almost the same lengh and body and almost look like mirror image of each other.

For a bearish railway track, the first candle is bullish followed by almost exactly the same length and body of the second candlestick which is bullish. This tells you that bulls are losing ground and bears have gained controlled.

So when you see the bearish railway track pattern in an uptrend, or in an area of resistance, this is a signal that the downtrend may be starting so you should be looking to sell.

Similarly but opposite is the bullish railway track pattern. When you see this in a downtred or in an area of support, take note because the market may be heading up and this is your signal to buy.

#10: Spinning Top.

Spinning tops can be continuation candlestick patterns or reversal candlestick patterns. Spinning tops have small bodies with upper and lower shadows that exceed the length of the body. Os piões sinalizam a indecisão. A spinning top is a single candlestick pattern and it can be both bullish or bearish.

Deixe-me explicar. If you see are bearish spinning top in a support area or in a downtrend, this can be considered a bullish reversal signal when the high of tha bearish spinning top is broken to the upside.

Similarly, a bullish spinning stop in a resistance level or in an uptrend can be considered a bearish signal as soon as the low is broken to the downside.

Example below shows what I mean:

Spinning tops are fairly short in length compared to other candlesticks and their body length is a few steps wider than that of doji candlesticks(which actually have none or very tiny bodies).

Another notable feature of spinning tops is that the wicks on both sides should be almost the same length.

When I see spinning tops form on support or resistance levels, all it tells me the bears and bulls do not really know where to push the market and so when a breakout of the low or high of a spinning top by the next candle that forms usually signals the move in that direction of breakout!

Veja um exemplo:

Blending Candlesticks-A Concept Every Trader Needs To Know.

This is a technique where not many traders are aware about and I will just give you a simple example so you understand this concept better.

To give you a bit of context, if you are a forex trader and you are using the metrader4 trading platform, it got only 9 timeframes where your charts can be viewed in which are the 1m, 5min, 15m, 30min, 1hr, 4hr, daily, weekly & monthly timeframes as shown on the chart below:

You may see a hammer in the 1hr timeframe but remember that that 1hr timeframe has two-30minute candles to make 1 hr, right? Sim.

So what do you think the candlestick pattern would be in the two-30 minute candlesticks to give you a bullish hammer candlestick pattern in the 1hr timeframe? Or if you see a shooting start bearish candlestick in the 1hr timeframe, what do you think would be the candlestick pattern in the two-30minute candlesticks that gave that 1hr candlestick a shooting star?

Well, your answers are below:

Hope you really understand this concept because here’s why:

In the metatrader4 trading platform, there’s not partner timeframe for 1minute…you need a 2minute chart which does not exist. Similarly, there’s no 10min chart which you can use to blend with the existing 5min timeframe. Similarly, there is no 2hr timeframe to go with 4hr timeframe and no 8hr timeframe to go with the existing 4hr timeframe.

So let’s say you are a trader that loves to trade only hammers and shooting stars and you are waiting buy at a major support line in the 1hr timeframe.

You’ve been waiting patiently for a bullish hammer candlestick pattern to form to give you the signal to buy. But unfortunately, no hammer forms in the 1hr timeframe and even though you see a bullish engulfing pattern formed, you did not enter a buy trade.

You just watched as price shoots up and you wished you could have bought at the bullish engulfing signal that was given but you are only interested in trading hammers.

Well, if there was a 2hr time frame in metrader4, you could have switched to it and seen a very bullish hammer and you could have taken the trade but because you did not understand the concept of blending candlesticks you missed a very good trade.

Here are few more examples:

Notice also that a piercing line pattern when blended forms a hammer.

A Dark cloud cover when blended also forms a shooting star.

CHAPTER 12: HOW TO TRADE FIBONACCI WITH PRICE ACTION.

Now, I don’t know about you but one thing I continue to see is that price action respects Fibonacci levels…not all the time but when it does, some of the market moves generated can make you money very easily. The trick is to use Fibonacci and combine it with price action by using reversal candlesticks.

But first, if you’ve never heard about Fibonacci retracement tool, then here’s a brief introduction…

What Is The Fibonacci Retracement Tool?

This tool is a series or sequence of numbers identified by a guy called Leonardo Fibonacci in the 13 th Century. (He’s long dead…) No, need to go into pointless details about how those numbers are derived.

So what actually is a Fibonacci Retracement?

In technical analysis Fibonacci retracement is created by taking two extreme points (usually a major peak and trough) on your forex chart and dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%. Once these levels are identified, horizontal lines are drawn and used to identify possible support and resistance levels .

The two fib levels I use the most are the 50% and the 61.8%. I really do not focus at all on the others.

If you are using metetrader4 Trading platform, the Fibonacci tool has an icon as shown on the chart below:

Top 3 Reasons Why You Need A Fibonacci Retracement Tool:

In a downtrend, after price has been going down for some time, it will move back up (upswing…remember?). The Fibonacci retracement tool can help you estimate or predict potential price reversal areas or levels. Similarly, in an uptrend, price will make minor downtrend moves (downswings) and the Fibonacci retracement tool will help you predict potential reversals areas or price levels. If used in conjunction with support and resistance levels and combined with price action, they do really form a powerful combination and do give highly profitable trading signals. This describes something known as “price confluence” . I will talk more on that later.

How to Use the Fibonacci Tool On Metatrader4.

It is actually a very simple 3 step process:

Step1: find a peak (upswing point/resistance level) and a trough (downswing point/support level)

Step2: Click on the Fibonacci tool icon on your chart.

For the next steps, it’s all click and drag process…

Step 3a: In a downtrend market, you click first on the previous peak where you want to analyse from and drag down to the trough where price reversed from and release.

Step 3b: In an uptrend market, click and drag first on the trough up to the peak and release.

That’s how simple it is to draw Fibonacci retracement levels on your charts.

On the chart below notice that price formed a peak and then moved down, found support and formed a trough, and price went back up:

At around the 50% fib level, it starts to slow sign of losing the upward steam. You can also see the bearish spinning top candlestick which could have been used as a signal to go short (sell).

Can you buy or sell just based entirely on the fib numbers like 50% or 61.8% as soon as price reaches these levels without price action?

Well, I think that there are traders out there that do that and you can do that. But personally, I do not like that approach. I’d rather combine Fibonacci with reversal candlesticks, trend lines, support & resistance levels etc for trade entries.

Let’s study the past… here’s an example of how to trade Fibonacci with price action in an uptrend. Notice the spinning top candlestick right at the 50% level which could have been used as a buy signal:

Here’s another example of how to trade Fibonacci with price action in a downtrend:

You can see that this is not complicated, isn’t it? Very simple trade setups. Your risks are small compared to the profits you potentially can make.

CHAPTER 13: HOW TO TRADE TRENDLINES WITH PRICE ACTION.

When the market is heading down, it forms down swings and up swings as it continually moves lower.

Similarly, when the market is in an uptrend, it will form upswings and downswings as it continues to move up.

The peaks that are formed by the up swings and the troughs that are formed by the down swings can be used to draw trendlines.

And you need a minimum of 2 peaks to draw a downward trendline for a market that is in a downtrend and you need 2 troughs to draw an upward trendline for a market that is in an uptrend.

How To Draw Downtrend Trendlines.

Now, for a market in a downtrend, you can connect the peaks with a line and that forms you downward trendline.

What you are waiting for is for price to come back up and touch that trendline and when it does, this could mean that a down swing will start and it may be the best time to enter a short trade.

The use of bearish reversal candlesticks as trade confirmation is highly recommended with this trading method.

How To Draw Upward Trendlines.

When the the market is in an uptrend, connect 2 troughs and you have an upward trendline. When price comes to touch it later, you have a potential buy setup.

The chart bellows shows a live example of a long trade on AUDNZD pair that I took at the moment whilst I was writing this guide.

As you can see, I was anticipating a move up to the 1.1290 level and used that as my take profit target level. Obviously, this trade was taken based on the setup in the daily timeframe which means it may be a week or two before the profit target is hit if the market makes a nice move up or the opposite can happen , price breaks the trendline and I get stopped out or I can walk away with some profits when my trailing stop gets hit.

But the next day, price broke that upward trendline and I got stopped out with a loss. But here’s the thing with a trade like that… my stop loss is tight , with a potential reward of more than 3 times what I risked for this trade. Here’s the chart of what happened:

I strongly recommend that you use bullish reversal candlesticks as a signal for executing your buy/long trades.

I’m not glamorizing price action trading here. You will have losses like what I’ve shown.

But think about this …if the price had moved the way I analysed, I would have made a lot more profits than what I lost.

With Price action trading, you are risking less with the potential to make more and that’s the beauty of price action trading.

What happens if the trendline gets intersected?

There are a couple of things you need to be aware when a trendline gets intersected:

(1)The first is that it could mean the trend has now changed.

(2)The second is that it can be a false break only and price will soon head back in the original direction.

Now, there’s another thing about trendlines, if one trendline get’s broken, you need to be see if you can draw another trendline above (or below) the one that’s broken. There can be 2 or more downward trendlines or 2 or more upward trendlines at any one time on any chart in any timeframe.

So if price breaks the first trendline, it still has yet to head to the 2 nd and the third etc…

So if you take a sell trade on the first trendline but price intersects it and you are stopped out with a loss and now price is heading to the 2 nd trendline above, you should also look to sell if you get bearish reversal candlestick signal.

Here’s an example of a trade in a similar situation that I took on the AUDUSD pair. See chart below: (enlarge if you cannot see clearly).

You will notice that I took the first trade on the first downward trendline based on a bearish harami and also a spinning top pattern there but then price intersected that trendline and went up to the 2 nd downward trendline.

I saw a shooting star so I took another short trade. Obviously, you can see how the price reacted to the trendline by forming a shooting star. That was enough signal for me to short this pair.

You need to be aware of these kinds of trendlines not only on the sell side buy ton the buy side as well.

I suggest you check out Trendline Trading System for more information on how to trade it.

CHAPTER 14: HOW TO TRADE MOVING AVERAGES WITH PRICE ACTION.

Remember in the beginning I did briefly mentioned something about Not-So-Pure Price Action Trading?

Well, now we are at it!

When you use price action trading with one other indicator or a combination of indicators which are incorporated into your trading system then that’s what I call Not-So-Pure Price Action Trading. (Call it whatever you like, if you think I’m wrong, I really don’t care).

Many new traders that find it difficult to define the structure of a trending market, therefore they rely on moving averages for trend detection or identification.

The only thing I see useful in moving averages is for dynamic support and resistance levels. I will explain this concept shortly. As a matter of fact moving averages do a terrible job of predicting trends in that they only do that after that trend has already started already and price has moved a great deal already.

Veja um exemplo:

In the chart on the left, notice that price has crossed the HL(higher low) already, indicating that the downtrend market has started (potentially). But notice that the moving averages have not crossed yet.

So price action is telling you that you are now potentially in a downtrend but moving average is saying “not yet”.

So you have two conflicting signals. And by the time moving average confirms what the price action has indicated, price has already made a great deal of move downward already as shown by this chart on the left.

So which are you really going to pick? Depend on moving average to tell you that a trend has changed or depend on price action?

I really can’t force, it’s your choice.

Using Moving Averages For Dynamic Support And Resistance Levels.

The concept of dynamic support and resistance can be fully understood with a few charts given below.

When the market is in a downtrend, you will notice that price moves up to the moving average lines (upswing) and then bounces back down from them (downswing). (That is if you put moving average lines on your charts).

Veja um exemplo:

The similar situation happens in an uptrend: prices move down to the moving average lines (downswing) and then bounces up from them (upswing).

Here’s an example shown on the chart below:

Now that you know this concept of dynamic support and resistance using moving averages, the next thing you need to know is that trend trading strategies can be created around them and in a very nice trending market, they are really effective.

For those that love moving averages, what you can do is to look reversal candlesticks as price starts to go back to touch the moving average lines and these are used as your confirmation signal to buy or sell.

In a downtrend, you should be looking for bearish reversal candlesticks like the shooting star, bearish harami, spinning tops, dark cloud cover, hanging man etc to go short (sell). In an uptrend, you should be looking out for bullish reversal candlestick patterns like pin bars, dojis, piercing line, bullish harami etc…

Let’s study the past again…on the chart below is an example of how to trade dynamic support with Price Action:

Now, it’s easy to say here that “ you could have bought here and sold here” etc based on what happened in the past because now you can see how the market has played out in the past…

But real challenge for many traders is that when a setup is happening, they will most likely second guess it because this is how its going to look:

And this is how how it turned out:

Here’s an example of trading using dynamic resistance levels with price action :

CHAPTER 15: HOW TO TRADE CONFLUENCE WITH PRICE ACTION.

What is confluence ? Well, let’s find out here in this following example…

What if you were watching the market and then you saw that price is heading to a resistance level and then you checked your Fibonacci retracement and it’s almost like a coincidence that the resistance levels is also at 61.8 Fibonacci level as well. And there’s even more…the overall trend is also down.

So you have 3 things lining up for you, here they are again:

the overall trend is down you have a resistance level that price is coming to and you notice that the price is also heading up to the fib level is 61.8 which coincides with the resistance level.

What I’ve described above is an example of confluence . A confluence is a point/level in the market where two or more levels intersect each other (or come together) and they form a flash point or hot point or confluent point.

Here’s An Example Of How I Trade With Confluence.

Let me give a real example of a trade that I took as I was writing this. This is the daily chart for AUDUSD. Have a good and close look at it.

Here’s why I took that trade:

I first drew a downward trendline and was waiting to see if price would come up to touch the trendline. And I also noticed that the previous support level that was broken could potentially act as a resistance level causing price to reverse. Therefore now I have two things coming together. Next thing I did was to check what the fib retracement level to see if price came and hit that resistance level what the ratio would be. Surprisingly, it was 61.8%. Sweet! So now I have 3 things coming together.

So how did I take the trade then?

I switched to the 1hr timeframe and waited for price to come and hit the confluence zone and saw a shooting star, a bearish reversal Candlestick pattern (also sometimes called a bearish pin bar). That was my clue to execute a short trade right there.

Here’s is a close up of how the trade setup looked like in the 1hr where I was waiting to take the trade(see chart below):

I risked 50 pips for this trade and later I’m going to set the previous swing low as my profit target which is 215 pips and if my profit target gets hits, I will make 7 times what I risked initially.

Good thing as I was stilling writing this guide this trade played out so I can show you what happened: As you can see, I managed to make 138 pips on the first trade. Note also that I also made a 2 nd trade which made 125pips as well. Even though my profit target was not hit, I used trailing stop loss as shown below until I got stopped out when price moved back up.

That’s the beauty about these kinds of trades:

They are really low risk-high reward entry trades. They have great chance of being profitable.

There’s two ways you will learn from price action:

First is to spend hours over your charts analysing what happened in the past and asking these types of questions: Why did price make a big upward move from here and why did price make a big downward move from here? What price action signals that formed there that could have given anybody an indication that this massive move was about to happen? You will be bloody surprised at what type of reversal candlesticks and chart patterns you will find. Then with that knowledge, get back to the present and see if you can see these patterns unfolding in the current market.

Here’s an example of a doji candlestick confluence with the dominant downtrend, as if formed telling you to sell the market with the trend. This short trade setup had 4 factors of confluence supporting it :

The doji had confluence with the dominant downtrend, as it formed telling you to sell the market with the trend. The doji showed a clear indecision by the sellers and the buyers therefore the breakout of the low of doji candlestick was what the sellers were waiting for to push the market down. The doji candlestick also formed between 50-61.8 fibonacci retracement zone. The moving averages providing dynamic resistance.

Here’s another example:

Now, I can put lots of charts giving you examples of what happened in the past…but it’s best that now you see and understand what I am explaining here, and then go and sit down and observe what happens on your charts in real time.

All this information here is providing you the foundation; the basic framework you need to trade price action, the learning comes from observing and doing.

CHAPTER 16: TOP 2 REASONS WHY I USE MULTI-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS AND TRADING.

There are 2 main reasons why I use multi-timeframe trading:

For getting better trade entries For reducing stop loss distance so I have better risk:reward ratio which means I can also increase the amount of contracts I trade without risking more of my trading account…so if my trade direction is right, I make a lot more money!

Now, I will explain both in detail…

How To Get Better Trade Entries And So Reduce Your Stop Loss Distance With Multi-Timeframe Analysis And Trading.

If you are trading strictly using the large timeframes like the daily chart, your stop loss distance will be huge and the issue with that is your risk:reward ratio can be reduced (no necessarily all the time):

Risk to Reward Ratio Explained.

Simply put, investing money into the investment markets has a high degree of risk, and if you’re going to take the risk, the amount of money you stand to gain needs to be big. Se alguém que você confia marginalmente pede um empréstimo de US $ 50 e se oferece para pagar US $ 60 em duas semanas, pode não valer a pena o risco, mas e se eles se oferecerem para pagar US $ 100? O risco de perder US $ 50 pela chance de ganhar US $ 100 pode ser atraente. So in that case your risk:reward ratio will be 1:2.

But what if you decided that you want to minimize your stop loss distance?

And even though you are trading with a setup in the daily chart, for your trade entry, you are actually switching to the smaller timeframe and watching for a sell signal in the 1hr timeframe?

Well, what I’ve just described is a really good example of multi-timeframe trading to get better trade entries.

Let’s study a chart of what happened in the past to make you understand what I am talking about…

This chart below is a daily chart and shows a triple top pattern in a solid resistance level. Price has been pushed down twice from this level and when the third time it price reaches this level, it was pushed down again.

Now, you can see the bearish harami reversal candlestick pattern and you could have used this as your sell signal by placing a pending sell stop order just a few pips under the low. And placed your stop loss outside of the resistance line as shown on the chart above.

But if you switched to the 1hr chart to wait for trade entry, your stop loss distances would be very small in comparison to the daily timeframe as shown by the chart below(I’ve zoomed in to get in closer):

Now, let’s compare both trades in the daily chart:

Notice that for the 1hr trade entry, it was done almost at the very top and the stop loss distance was very small in comparison to the trade taken in the daily timeframe. Which means that the risk:reward of the 1hr timeframe trade is a lot better than what you would get in the daily.

Now, you can do this with daily timeframe and 4hrs or even down to the 30 and 15 minute timeframes.

Or you can watch trade setups in the 4hr but switch to either the 1hr, 30mins, 15min and 5mins for your trade entries.

I often use the 1hr for my trade entries and can even go down to 5min timeframe for my entries. If you are new trader, stick to 1hr or 4hr timeframe for your trade entries.

So when you trade in the 1hr timeframe (or much smaller timeframe) you can actually trade a lot more contracts without risking more because your stop loss distance are very small compared to the larger timeframe trade.

For example, the stop loss for the 1hr timeframe trade is 20 pips but for the daily timeframe trade is 80 pips. Let’s say that you have a $10,000 account and you risk 2%($200) each trade. If you trade in the daily chart, that stop loss of 80 pips is roughly $800 so to keep your risk at 2% the amount of contracts you will trade will be 0.25.

However If you’ve traded in the 1hr you can be able to trade 1 standard lot.

This simple example explains why I wait patiently for trade setups to happen in the monthly, weekly, daily, 4hr timeframes and then use smaller timeframes to get good trade entries. This is the beauty of multi-timeframe trading using price action.

Let me give one more example of multi-time frame analysis…As I’m writing this book (the date now is 5 th of Dec 2014), I can see that EURJPY has been on an uptrend since July 2012 on the monthly charts and I can also see that there is resistance level at 149.115 which it hit already. This is the monthly chart:

Now, lets zoom in on the daily chart and see what the price action is like on where the arrow is pointing (see chart below):

Ok, I begin to see what’s happening…so obviously, EURJPY has been rejected down on the 149.115 resistance level with the formation of the shooting star (bearish candlestick signal) but now, I can see that its going back up to test that level again.

Two things can happen here:

Price is going to hit the resistance level and head back down ( and I will be waiting for a bearish reversal candlestick there to sell when I see one). Or its going to break it and if it breaks it, there’s a significant resistance level above it you can see on the monthly chart.

Now, let’s go down into the 4hr chart to see what is happening there as well…

So now you can see how I do my multi-timeframe analysis to get down a timeframe where I execute a trade at a very good price level or entry point whilst keeping my stop loss distance tight.

Now, here’ the thing about larger timeframes:

“They cover up trading setups that are happening in smaller timeframes that could be really reliable trading setups.”

But when you switch back and forth between timeframes, you begin to see how you can trade the larger timeframes setups based on the setups that happen in the smaller timeframes.

For this eurjpy setup above, I’m going to be sitting down and watching it to see if I get a bearish reversal candlestick in the 1hr or the 4hr….it’s probably going to happen tonight in maybe 4-8hrs time but the price is getting close to that resistance level. I really don’t like trading breakouts where I see the price has been overextend for a long period of time so even if this one breakouts to the upside, I will not be buying. I will be waiting for a pullback to buy, if that happens.

CHAPTER 17: TRADE THE OBVIOUS.

I hope you have learnt how powerful price action trading can be. Now, not all trading setups you see will become winners.

But here’s the thing…if your losses are small but your profits are large, you will always be in be out in front. That’s why trading risk management is important.

When you are watching the chart for trading setups, you need see and trade the obvious.

O que quero dizer com isso?

Well, if there is an obvious pattern on the chart and you can see it clearly, then you should know that there are thousands of traders out there are watching the exact same thing as you are doing…because it’s so obvious .

Trendlines or channels or bullish pin bar forming on major support level, if you can see that, there are many that will be seeing the same thing. All these traders will be waiting to see what happens at these levels and say if a bullish hammer forms on a major support level, then guess what will happen next? The most likely outcome of that is that as soon as the high of the hammer candlestick is broken, price will shoot up!

Trade the obvious!

How many times have you ever went over your chart and you are like:

“Goodness me! I should have taken a trade here and look at how the market moved after that bearish shooting star candlestick was formed after hitting the resistance level.”

When you trade the obvious, then you trade with what everybody else is seeing and in essence you are really doing piggy-back, riding on the market move created by all these orders that puts the odds in your favour.

See chart below for this: if you see a support major support level and price is heading down to it and at the same time, that support level is coinciding with an upward trendline…

O que isto significa? That’s Confluence buddy! And then you see a bullish Piercing line reversal candlestick form right at the area of confluence.

Are you going to be undecided about this price signal and pull up stochastic or CCI indicator to really make sure (give you confidence) you need to buy.

NO need for that…Just Trade the obvious!

CHAPTER 18: CLOSING REMARKS.

Some things I have learnt:

Levels are not lines drawn in concrete, they get broken . You see, the more a level is tested multiple times, sooner or later it will get broken. From my observations, 2-3 times is the average, after that, expect a breakout of the level. Don’t listen to analysts . They can stuff up your decision making process and cloud your judgement. For example: I see a sell setup on my chart but because I’ve read the analysts report that says he is bullish on this currency pair because of this and that reason , I hesitate to pull the trigger . Later, I check the chart and see that If I had sold, I would have made money. So use your own independent judgment based on what you see on your charts. Find your best timeframe to trade . Your personality, work circumstances etc may dictate what timeframe you can use. For me, I can trade from the 4hr, 1hr down the 5 & 1 min charts because I use multi-timeframe trading. Yes, there will be people that will say “You are crazy to be trading in the smaller timeframes like the 5min and 1minute because there’s too much noise in the smaller timeframes.” Yes, I know that…The whole point of me switching to lower timeframes is this: to get better trade entries. You don’t have to do that, that’s my style . That’s what I like. If the bus leaves you, don’t chase the bus! In other words… don’t chase trades. If you are late to get into a trade at an optimal entry point and realized that you might “miss out”, then back off and wait. There will always be another opportunity or wait for a retrace/retest/pullback etc and then enter. Be patient for the right trading setups to form. If you are suffering from losing streaks, take a break . Take a week off from trading to clear up your mind then come back with a clear mind to trade. If you have winning streaks, don’t get overconfident and risk more. You streaks of losses may be just around the corner.

If you’ve enjoyed going through my price action trading course , please don’t forget to share, tweet, like and link to it by clicking those sharing buttons on the left side of this page. I would really appreciate that. Obrigado.

35 Responses.

there is no true volume indicator in forex telling you exactly how much volume is going through the forex market at any given time period.

This is because forex is not a centralized market like the share market where true volume information can be seen.

You see, for any forex broker to have a true volume indicator, they would need to have data feeds from every bank in the world that does currency exchange/trading.

The volume indicator you see on your MT4 trading platform does not measure the true volume at all. It simply measures the number of ticks for a given time period.

espero que isso responda sua pergunta.

Thanks a lot for the knowledge.

Is it also necessary to you use Volume Analysis in Forex can it help when combines with price action.

dude, this is hands down one of the best blogs, if not the best blog I have ever seen on price action. Thank you so much for your time, efforts and enormous generosity in sharing it for free with the trading world. I like it so much that I have bookmarked it to refer to it again and again as part of my must keep and review again and again trading library. A HUGE thank you to you.

Obrigado por seu comentário.

Don’t forget to share.

I really wanted to try me my psychology management ..

demo and real difference psychology Kahan hahahhaha.

I would like to ask for advice to you ..

for 5 months, I learned a demo account and start to profit consistently ..

I want to start a real account with an initial capital of $ 150, what is approximately lavarage should I use. and how many risks I use.

I had been using lavarage 1: 200 and the risk of 5% of the capital ..

I hope you give advice and risk lavarage what should I use.

you need figure out the answers to those questions yourself.

If you are starting a live trading account with $150, the question needs to be asked: would you be satisfied with a $5 profit each trade? Or even a $1 profit each trade?

If your trading account cannot support the contract sizes that would equate to the type of profits that you’d like to see happening, then the chances are you are going to take a lot of risks on your $150 trading account to “meet that expectation”. and that is something i cannot tell you what you should do. Leverage is totally irrelevant. How much risk per trade is.

Sory my English is bad but THANK YOU THANK YOU VERY VERY MUCH.

Thanks for your comment, Ihsan.

Terima kasih telah membuat blog yang sangat sangat saya cari selama ini.

Sudah sekian banyak saya mengunjungi web dan blog forex, tetapi mereka hanya menjelaskan dasar nya saja ..jika kita ingin mengetahui lebih lanjut harus membayar harga yang sangat tinggi ..

Tetapi disini dijelaskan sampai ke akar nya ..sekali lagi terimakasih banyak atas ilmu nya..

Price Action adalah yang terbaik..

Maaf jika komentar saya tidak menggunakan bahasa inggris, itu karena saya tidak begitu faham ..hahahaha.

obrigado por comentar.

Using Google Translate:

Thank you for making the blog a very highly I was looking for this.

I’ve visited many web and forex blog, but they only explain its basis only ..If we want to find out more should pay a very high price ..

But here described to her roots ..sekali again thanks so much for his science ..

Price Action is the best ..

I’m sorry if my comments do not use the English language, it is because I do not quite understand ..hahahaha.

Really I would like to thank you for providing such a wonderful Price Action Trading (PAT) course for free of cost. As you rightly pointed out that most of the PAT course in the market covers the same material as yours and you have provided for free. God bless you and helps to change your mindset to have a proper money management. Keep doing your wonderful work. All the very best. Felicidades.

Thanks for you comment, Venkatesh.

Thanks Rkay. I am waiting for a long time to find a website like yours. Now I found it its feel like heaven. The free training is very helpful for beginnrrs like me. I sm very happy.

What i Like most everything in one Glance single page and you learn what expensive courses will teach and free.

Obrigado por seu comentário.

Hi, this article and the whole blog is a great read. I must say that it is comprehensible.

thanks for visiting.

One of the best blogs i’ve read in a while. feels truly honest.

all the best Ray.

i hope this helps me on my trading ! ? thanks for sharing your story .

I am from India and has been a kind of active trader from last many years. From last couple of years i am into price action trading and finally the account is moving to a positive direction. Though most of the things you shared above , i was already aware of but still learnt few concepts that i think can provide an extra edge to my trading. A VERY BIG THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME AND EFFORT FOR PUTTING THIS EXCELLENT MATERIAL IN A SINGLE PAGE THAT TOO IN A VERY DETAILED MANNER !!

As a token of gratitude i am sharing couple of very important and knowledgeable links with you. Please visit them whenever you get a chance –

One of the best trading thread –

A small article on trading –

HAPPY TRADING & AGAIN THANKS FOR EVERYTHING ! 🙂

If you could shed some light of the trading system you are using ( with charts & examples) of what you are talking about, maybe I can give you a proper answer.

With multi-timeframe trading, the lower timeframe does not necessarily have to be in the same direction as the larger timeframe.

If you are using price action, what you are looking for is the ‘SIGNAL” when the lower timeframe starts showing indication that price may potentially start following the trend in the larger timeframe. That’s the time you take a trade with the ancipation that the lower timeframe trend will start turning to follow the main trend in the larger timeframe.

You will notice that:

(1) the main trend was up up on the daily timeframe (the larger timeframe)

(2) switching to lower timeframe, 4hr or 1hr to wait there for sell signals (bearish reversal candlesticks)

Based on this example, you can see that daily trend was up, even the 4hr or 1 hr trend was heading up as well.

But the key to this whole thing was the “trade setup” that was seen many days before it happened.

When analyzing the charts on a daily timeframe is in an uptrend then I switch to a 4hr chart is in downtrend. Should both timeframe be in the same direction before I entry a trade?

hey rkay thank u so much for sharing this! such a useful lesson! i’m a freshman in accounting but interested in trading and this helps a lot.

Thanks for Visiting. Que bom que você gostou.

Dude thanks so much for putting this up. been trading for 3 months or so doing ok with almost no knowledge other than the trend is your friend and buy low and sale high 🙂 came across an article that said you should learn price action 1st and it will make you a better trader!! just ordered two books on it and they get here tuesday, I will be suspending my trading until i consume that info!! thanks again MT.

Awesome course! Obrigado pelo seu tempo.

glad you like it.

I don’t understand definition of consolidate in forex? what that is mean? what mean consolidate in forex?

Hi Bro Thet Naung Soe,

I got you covered!

This post explains what a consolidation is:

A BIG Thanks to those traders that are clicking the sharing links like facebook share, tweet etc to share this free price action trading course with your fans and friends. MUCH APPRECIATED GUYS AND GIRLS!

Excelente & # 8211; I have learned so much reading this material. I shall be using it over and over again until it all sinks in to my mind. Thank you so much for such first rate intelligent information that was enjoyable to read.

Comprehensive but easy to digest. All of that for free. Thank you so much for helping people like me that do not have the wherewithal to pay for price action trading lessons. I book marked this page and will spend weeks and months studying your teachings. Once again remain blessed .

LPL Financial Research.

Macro Market Movers Blog.

Definições

# Of Up Periods / Down Periods: Indicates the number of quarters the portfolio has generated a positive / negative return over the given time period.

An AAA rating is the highest possible rating assigned to the bonds of an issuer by credit rating agencies. An issuer that is rated AAA has an exceptional degree of creditworthiness and can easily meet its financial commitments. Ratings agencies such as Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings use AAA to indicate the highest credit quality, while Moody’s uses Aaa.

An AA+ rating is generally one step below the highest rating (AAA) assigned to the bonds of an issuer by credit rating agencies. This rating signifies that there is little to no risk of default and is often assigned to securities that have some type of insurance backing.

The return that an asset achieves over a certain period of time. This measure looks at the appreciation or depreciation (expressed as a percentage) that an asset – usually a stock or a mutual fund – achieves over a given period of time. Absolute return differs from relative return because it is concerned with the return of a particular asset and does not compare it to any other measure or benchmark.

Investment managers attempt to outperform the market by predicting market activity, and can add value to portfolios by anticipating market cycles and continuously changing asset allocation over time.

ADP National Employement Report.

The ADP National Employment Report®, sponsored by ADP®, was developed and is maintained by Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC. It is a measure of employment derived from an anonymous subset of roughly 500,000 U. S. business clients. During the twelve-month period through December 2009, this subset averaged over 360,000 U. S. business clients and over 22 million U. S. employees working in all private industrial sectors.

The ADP National Employment Report (ADP Private Jobs Report) provides a monthly snapshot of U. S. nonfarm private sector employment based on actual transactional payroll data. The report is based on payroll data from over half of ADP’s U. S. business clients, which represents about 24 million employees from all 19 of the major North American Industrial Classification (NAICS) private industrial sectors.

The advance/decline line (A/D) is a technical indicator that plots changes in the value of the advance-decline index over a certain time period. Each point on the chart is calculated by taking the difference between the number of advancing/declining issues and adding the result to the previous period’s value.

Also known as Obamacare, it’s a federal statute signed into law in 2010 that seeks to expand Medicaid eligibility, establish health insurance exchanges, and prohibit insures from denying coverage due to pre-existing conditions.

The Alerian MLP Index is a composite of the 50 most prominent energy Master Limited Partnerships that provides investors with an unbiased, comprehensive benchmark for this emerging asset class. The index, which is calculated using a float-adjusted, capitalization-weighted methodology, is disseminated in real time on a price-return basis (NYSE: AMZ) and on a total-return basis (NYSE: AMZX).

Alpha: Measures the difference between a portfolio’s actual returns and its expected performance, given its level of risk as measured by Beta. A positive (negative) Alpha indicates the portfolio has performed better (worse) than its Beta would predict.

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII)

The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market for the next six months; individuals are polled from the ranks of the AAII membership on a weekly basis. Only one vote per member is accepted in each weekly voting period.

American Petroleum Institute (API)

Trade association representing the U. S. oil and gas industry.

An Annuity is a financial product sold by financial institutions that is designed to accept and grow funds from an individual and then, upon annuitization, pay out a stream of payments to the individual at a later point in time. Annuities are primarily used as a means of securing a steady cash flow for an individual during their retirement years.

Regional institution that provides capital to emerging market economies with the goal of promoting economic development in the Asia-Pacific region.

Asian Development Bank (ADB)

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) is a regional economic forum established in 1989 to help foster trade and cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region.

Asset-backed securities are bonds or notes backed by financial assets such as non-mortgage loans including credit card receivables, auto loans, manufactured-housing contracts, and home-equity loans.

An Asset Class is a group of securities that exhibit similar characteristics, behave similarly in the marketplace, and are subject to the same laws and regulations. The three main asset classes are equities (stocks), fixed-income (bonds) and cash equivalents (money market instruments).

The ASX is the Australian Stock Exchange located in Sydney, Australia.

Average Duration: A common gauge of the price sensitivity of a fixed income asset or portfolio to a change in interest rates.

Average Up / Down Return: Measures the average return generated during quarters that the portfolio had a positive /negative return.

The BAA spread refers to the yield on corporate bonds above the rate on comparable maturity Treasury debt, and is a market-based estimate of the amount of fear in the bond market. BAA-rated bonds are the lowest quality bonds still considered investment-grade, rather than high-yield. Therefore, they best reflect the stresses across the quality spectrum. A rise in BAA spreads acts as a negative for the CCI.

Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Count.

Baker Hughes releases its North American Rig Count report weekly. This publication reports the number of drills actively exploring for or developing oil or natural gas wells in the United States and Canada.

Balanced portfolio is a method of portfolio allocation designed to provide both income and capital appreciation while avoiding excessive risk.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Fund Managers Survey.

The Merrill Lynch Global Fund Managers Survey that surveys roughly 200 panelists with a total of approximately $600 billion in assets under management about market outlooks and broad portfolio positioning.

The Bank of England (BOE) is the central bank of the United Kingdom; the BOE’s roles include overseeing monetary policy and issuing currency.

Bank Loan portfolios primarily invest in floating-rate bank loans instead of bonds. In exchange for their credit risk, these loans offer high interest payments that typically float above a common short-term benchmark such as the London Interbank Offered Rate, or LIBOR.

Bloomberg Barclay’s Aggregate Bond Index.

The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index represents securities that are SEC-registered, taxable, and dollar denominated. The index covers the U. S. investment-grade fixed rate bond market, with index components for government and corporate securities, mortgage pass-through securities, and asset-backed securities.

Bloomberg BVAL AAA Muni Yield % of Treasury Index.

The BVAL Municipal AAA Benchmark captures credit spreads and is validated by AAA competitive and negotiated new issues.

Bloomberg Barclay’s Global Aggregate Bond Index.

The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index measures the performance of global investment grade debt. The index includes treasury, corporate, and securitized fixed-rate bonds.

Bloomberg Barclay’s U. S. Corporate Index.

The Bloomberg Barclays U. S. Corporate Index is a broad-based benchmark that measures the investment-grade, U. S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market.

Bloomberg Barclay’s High-Yield Bond Index.

The Bloomberg Barclays High-Yield Bond Index is an unmanaged index of corporate bonds rated below investment grade by Moody’s, S&P or Fitch Investor Service. The index also includes bonds not rated by the ratings agencies.

Bloomberg Barclay’s Municipal Bond Index.

The Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index is a market capitalization-weighted index of investment-grade municipal bonds with maturities of at least one year. All indices are unmanaged and include reinvested dividends. One cannot invest directly in an index. O desempenho passado não é garantia de resultados futuros.

Bloomberg Barclay’s Long Government Index.

The Bloomberg Barclays Long-Term Government/Corporate Bond Index is an unmanaged index that includes fixed-rate debt issues rated investment grade or higher by Moody’s Investors Services, Standard & Poor’s Corporation, or Fitch Investor’s Service, in order. Long-term indexes include bonds with maturities of 10 years or longer. Investors cannot invest directly in this index.

Bloomberg Barclay’s U. S. TIPS Index.

The index includes all publicly issued, U. S. Treasury inflation-protected securities that have at least one year remaining to maturity.

Bloomberg Barclay’s U. S. Treasury Index.

The index includes public debt of the U. S. Treasury with a remaining maturity of one year or more.

Bloomberg Barclay’s U. S. MBS Index.

This index measures the performance of investment grade mortgage-backed securities of FNMA, GNMA, and FHLMC.

Bloomberg Barclay’s U. S. High Yield Loans Index.

The U. S. High-Yield Loans index provides broad total return metrics of syndicated term loans.

Bloomberg Barclay’s USD EMD Aggregate Index.

The Bloomberg Barclays Emerging Markets USD Aggregate Index is a flagship hard currency emerging market (EM) debt benchmark that includes fixed and floating-rate U. S. dollar–denominated debt issued from sovereign, quasi-sovereign, and corporate EM issuers. Country eligibility and classification as emerging markets is rules-based and reviewed annually using World Bank income group and International Monetary Fund (IMF) country classifications.

Bloomberg probability index (WIRP)

The Bloomberg probability index seeks to measure the odds of future events using market price data.

Bloomberg Barclay’s High Yield Municipal Index.

The Bloomberg Barclay’s High Yield Municipal Bond Index tracks consists of below-investment grade municipal bonds.

Basel III is a comprehensive set of reform measures designed to improve the regulation, supervision and risk management within the banking sector. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision published the first version of Basel III in late 2009, giving banks approximately three years to satisfy all requirements. Largely in response to the credit crisis, banks are required to maintain proper leverage ratios and meet certain capital requirements.

Basis Points are a unit relating to interest rates that is equal to 1/100th of a percentage point. It is frequently but not exclusively used to express differences in interest rates of less than 1%.

Batting Average is a statistical measure used to measure an investment manager’s ability to meet or beat an index. Batting average is calculated by dividing the number of days (or months, quarters, etc.) in which the manager beats or matches the index by the total number of days (or months, quarters, etc.) in the period of question and multiplying that factor by 100.

An obligation rated ‘BBB’ exhibits adequate protection parameters. However, adverse economic conditions or changing circumstances are more likely to lead to a weakened capacity of the obligor to meet its financial commitment on the obligation.

A market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining.

The Beige Book is a commonly used name for the Fed report called the Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District. It is published just before the FOMC meeting on interest rates and is used to inform the members on changes in the economy since the last meeting.

Best Quarter / Worst Quarter Return: Indicates the highest / lowest quarterly rate of return generated by the portfolio.

Beta measures a portfolio’s volatility relative to its benchmark. A Beta greater than 1 suggests the portfolio has historically been more volatile than its benchmark. A Beta less than 1 suggests the portfolio has historically been less volatile than its benchmark.

Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (BBDXY) tracks the performance of a basket of 10 leading global currencies versus the U. S. Dollar.

Bond Buyer 30-Day Visible Supply Calendar.

The Bond Buyer 30-Day Visible Supply Calendar reflects the volume of bonds in dollars expected to reach the market within the next 30 days.

Restructured debt backed by Treasuries and issued by emerging market countries after defaulting on original loans.

A technical analysis technique that looks to gauge the direction of the market by comparing the number of companies advancing relative to the number of companies declining. Market breadth is positive when more companies are moving higher.

Breakeven yield is the point at which the money brought in from the sale of a product or service is equal to the cost of marketing the product or services. The breakeven point is the point at which no profit or loss is being derived. Breakeven yield allows a decision-maker to have knowledge about the minimum volume yield required to earn a specific rate of return on a product or service.

Term used to describe the potential exit of Britain from the European Union.

Bubble describes an economic cycle characterized by rapid expansion followed by a contraction.

The issuance of Build America Bonds (BAB) began in April of 2009. They were authorized by the ARRA economic stimulus of 2009 and can be issued for qualifying infrastructure projects. They are taxable municipal bonds and are considered a category of bonds.

Measures investors’ market sentiment as bullish (optimistic), bearish (pessimistic), or neutral.

The Business Cycle is recurring and fluctuating levels of economic activity that an economy experiences over a long period of time. The five stages of the business cycle are growth (expansion), peak, recession (contraction), trough and recovery. At one time, business cycles were thought to be extremely regular, with predictable durations, but today they are widely believed to be irregular, varying in frequency, magnitude and duration.

Business inventories are the dollar amount of inventories held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. The level of inventories in relation to sales is an important indicator of the near-term direction of production activity.

The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index.

A report based on a survey of the forward-looking economic views of Business Roundtable member CEOs.

The Cotation Assistée en Continu, or CAC, is a benchmark for the French stock market, and one of the main national indices of the pan-European stock exchange group, Euronext.

The CAC 40 is a capitalization-weighted index of the 40 largest French equities designed to measure the overall performance of the Paris Bourse, the French stock exchange.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

Tracks repeat sales home prices for the United States.

Leading indicator of Chinese manufacturing activity.

The CBOE Skew Index measures the perceived tail risk of the S&P 500 Index.

The Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) is an annual exercise by the Federal Reserve to assess whether the largest bank holding companies operating in the United States have sufficient capital to continue operations throughout times of economic and financial stress and that they have robust, forward-looking capital-planning processes that account for their unique risks.

An obligation rated CCC is currently vulnerable to nonpayment, and is dependent upon favorable business, financial, and economic conditions for the obligor to meet its financial commitment on the obligation. In the event of adverse business, financial, or economic conditions, the obligor is not likely to have the capacity to meet its financial commitment on the obligation.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas is the oldest executive outplacement firm in the United States. The firm conducts regular surveys and issues reports on the state of the economy, employment, job-seeking, layoffs, and executive compensation.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure.

Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (CFMMI)

The Chicago Area Purchasing Manager Index that is read on a monthly basis to gauge how manufacturing activity is performing. This index is a true snapshot of how manufacturing and corresponding businesses are performing for a given month. A reading of 50 or above is considered a positive reading. Anything below 50 is considered to indicate a decline in activity. Readings of the index have the ability to shift the day’s trading session one way or another based on the results.

Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI)

The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) is a monthly estimate by major industry of manufacturing output in the Seventh Federal Reserve District states of lllinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin. It is a composite index of 15 manufacturing industries that uses hours worked data to measure monthly changes in regional activity.

China’s A-share market: Composed of companies located in China that are listed on Chinese mainland stock exchanges.

Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI)

The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) measures the variation in the gap between the expectations and the real economic data.

Contingent Convertibles: A bond that is convertible to shares of common stock at a predetermined price; however, there is also a second, higher stock price level that must be reached before the conversion can be executed.

COMEX is the primary market for trading metals, such as gold.

A short-term unsecured promissory note issued by a finance company or a relatively large industrial firm. The notes are generally sold at a discount from face value with maturities ranging from 30 to 270 days. Although the large denominations ($25,000 minimum) of these notes usually keep individual investors out of this market, the notes are popular investments for money market mutual funds. Used interchangeably with the term paper.

A commodity is a basic good used in commerce that is interchangeable with other commodities of the same type. Commodities are most often used as inputs in the production of other goods or services. The quality of a given commodity may differ slightly, but it is essentially uniform across producers.

Comissão de Negociação de Futuros de Commodities (CFTC)

The U. S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is an agency of the U. S. government that regulates the commodity futures and options markets.

Congressional Budget Office.

The Congressional Budget Office is a non-partisan arm of Congress, established in 1974, to provide Congress with non-partisan scoring of budget proposals.

Índice de Confiança do Consumidor.

The Consumer Confidence Index is based on consumers’ perceptions of current business and employment conditions, as well as their expectations for six months hence regarding business conditions, employment, and income. Three thousand households across the country are surveyed each month. In general, while the level of consumer confidence is associated with consumer spending, the two do not move in tandem each and every month.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

Consumer Price Inflation.

Consumer Price Inflations is the retail price increase as measured by a consumer price index (CPI).

Consumer Sentiment Report.

The Consumer Sentiment report refers to a report published by the University of Michigan, in which the University’s Consumer Survey Center questions 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. Consumer sentiment is important because it is directly related to the strength of consumer spending. Preliminary estimates for a month are released at mid-month. Final estimates for a month are released near the end of the month.

Core CPI is a subset of the total Consumer Price Index (CPI) that excludes the highly volatile food and energy prices. It is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics around the middle of each month. Compare to Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE); Core PPI; Producer Price Index (PPI).

Core Inflation is a measure of inflation that excludes certain items that face volatile price movements. Core inflation eliminates products that can have temporary price shocks because these shocks can diverge from the overall trend of inflation and give a false measure of inflation.

Correlation is a statistical measure of how two securities move in relation to each other. Correlations are used in advanced portfolio management.

A Credit Default Swap (CDS) is designed to transfer the credit exposure of fixed income products between parties. The buyer of a credit swap receives credit protection, whereas the seller of the swap guarantees the credit worthiness of the product. By doing this, the risk of default is transferred from the holder of the fixed income security to the seller of the swap.

Credit Quality is one of the principal criteria for judging the investment quality of a bond or bond mutual fund. As the term implies, credit quality informs investors of a bond or bond portfolio’s credit worthiness, or risk of default.

Credit ratings are published rankings based on detailed financial analyses by a credit bureau specifically as it relates the bond issue’s ability to meet debt obligations. The highest rating is AAA, and the lowest is D. Securities with credit ratings of BBB and above are considered investment grade.

Credit risk is the risk of loss of principal or loss of a financial reward stemming from a borrower’s failure to repay a loan or otherwise meet a contractual obligation. Credit risk arises whenever a borrower is expecting to use future cash flows to pay a current debt. Investors are compensated for assuming credit risk by way of interest payments from the borrower or issuer of a debt obligation. Credit risk is closely tied to the potential return of an investment, the most notable being that the yields on bonds correlate strongly to their perceived credit risk.

The credit spread is the yield the corporate bonds less the yield on comparable maturity Treasury debt. This is a market-based estimate of the amount of fear in the bond market Bass-rated bonds are the lowest quality bonds that are considered investment-grade, rather than high-yield. They best reflect the stresses across the quality spectrum.

Currency Forward is a forward contract in the forex market that locks in the price at which an entity can buy or sell a currency on a future date. Also known as “outright forward currency transaction”, “forward outright” or “FX forward”.

Current Conditions Index (CCI)

The Current Conditions Index (CCI) is a weekly measure of the conditions that underpin LPL Financial Research’s outlook for the markets and economy. It provides real-time insight into the trends that shape our recommended actions to manage portfolios and has proven to be a useful investment decision-making tool. This index is not intended to be a leading index or predict future conditions; it is a coincident measure of where they are now. Because our index is tailored to the current environment, the components of the CCI are periodically changed to retune the index to those factors most critical to the markets and economy, so it may continue to be a valuable investment decision-making tool.

Current account is the difference between a nation’s savings and its investment.

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index.

The Dallas Fed conducts the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey monthly to obtain a timely assessment of the state’s factory activity. Firms are asked whether output, employment, orders, prices, and other indicators increased, decreased, or remained unchanged over the previous month. Survey responses are used to calculate an index for each indicator.

The Deutscher Aktien Index (DAX) is a stock index that represents 30 of the largest and most liquid German companies that trade on the Frankfurt Exchange.

The debt ceiling refers to the maximum amount of money the United States Federal Government can borrow, and is set by law (created under the Second Liberty Bond Act of 1917).

Debt-to-GDP is a measure of a country’s federal debt in relation to its gross domestic product (GDP). By comparing what a country owes and what it produces, the debt-to-GDP ratio indicates the country’s ability to pay back its debt. The ratio is a coverage ratio on a national level.

Default Rate is the interest rate charged to a borrower when payments on a revolving line of credit are overdue. This higher rate is applied to outstanding balances in arrears in addition to the regular interest charges for the debt.

Default rate is the rate in which debt holders default on the amount of money that they owe. It is often used by credit card companies when setting interest rates, but also refers to the rate at which corporations default on their loans. Default rates tend to rise during economic downturns, since investors and businesses see a decline in income and sales while still required to pay off the same amount of debt.

Default Risk is when companies or individuals will be unable to make the required payments on their debt obligations. Lenders and investors are exposed to default risk in virtually all forms of credit extensions. To mitigate the impact of default risk, lenders often charge rates of return that correspond the debtor’s level of default risk. The higher the risk, the higher the required return, and vice versa.

Deflation is a general decline in prices, often caused by a reduction in the supply of money or credit.

A security whose price is dependent upon or derived from one or more underlying assets. The derivative itself is merely a contract between two or more parties. Seu valor é determinado por flutuações no ativo subjacente. Os ativos subjacentes mais comuns incluem ações, títulos, commodities, moedas, taxas de juros e índices de mercado.

Dow Jones Industrial Average is the most widely used indicator of the overall condition of the stock market, a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue chip stocks, primarily industrials. The 30 stocks are chosen by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. The Dow is computed using a price-weighted indexing system, rather than the more common market cap-weighted indexing system.

A measure of the value of the U. S. dollar relative to majority of its most significant trading partners. This index is similar to other trade-weighted indexes, which also use the exchange rates from the same major currencies.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is comprised of U. S.-listed stocks of companies that produce other (non-transportation and non-utility) goods and services. The Dow Jones Industrial Averages are maintained by editors of The Wall Street Journal. While the stock selection process is somewhat subjective, a stock typically is added only if the company has an excellent reputation, demonstrates sustained growth, is of interest to a large number of investors and accurately represents the market sectors covered by the average. The Dow Jones averages are unique in that they are price weighted; therefore their component weightings are affected only by changes in the stocks’ prices.

Dow Jones Transportation Average Index.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average is a price-weighted index that covers twenty companies in the transportation industry.

Dow Jones Utility Average Index.

The Dow Jones Utility Average is a price-weighted index that covers fifteen prominent companies in the utilities industry.

The Dow Theory is an approach to technical analysis that was developed by Charles H. Dow.

The discount rate: The rate at which member banks may borrow short term funds directly from a Federal Reserve Bank. The discount rate is one of the two interest rates set by the Fed, the other being the Federal funds rate. The Fed actually controls this rate directly, but this fact does not really help in policy implementation, since banks can also find such funds elsewhere.

A chart showing the economic projections of Federal Reserve board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents which includes forecasts for: inflation, unemployment, gross domestic product, and Fed funds rates.

The DuPont method of performance measurement that was started by the DuPont Corporation in the 1920s. With this method, assets are measured at their gross book value rather than at net book value in order to produce a higher return on equity (ROE). It is also known as “DuPont identity”.

Durable goods orders refer to an economic indicator released monthly by the Bureau of Census that reflects new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of factory hard goods (durable goods) in the near term or future. Durable goods orders come in two releases per month: the advance report on durable goods and the manufacturers’ shipments, inventories and orders.

Duration is a measure of the sensitivity of the price (the value of principal) of a fixed-income investment to a change in interest rates. It is expressed as a number of years. Rising interest rates mean falling bond prices, while declining interest rates mean rising bond prices. The bigger the duration number, the greater the interest-rate risk or reward for bond prices.

Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization – EBITDA.

Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA) is essentially net income with interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization added back to it, and can be used to analyze and compare profitability between companies and industries because it eliminates the effects of financing and accounting decisions.

The natural fluctuation of the economy between periods of expansion (growth) and contraction (recession).

A report that contains data used to determine regional economic trends in the Japanese economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank responsible for the monetary system of the European Union (EU) and the euro currency. The bank was formed in Germany in June 1998 and works with the other national banks of each of the EU members to formulate monetary policy for the European Union.

European Stabilization Mechanism (ESM)

International organization that serves as a firewall for the Eurozone to provide liquidity to member countries. It has a maximum lending capacity of €500 billion.

Eurodollars are U. S. dollar denominated time deposits held at foreign banks. Given that they are held outside the country, they are not under the jurisdiction of the Federal Reserve.

An emerging market is a nation that is progressing toward becoming advanced, as shown by some liquidity in local debt and equity markets and the existence of some form of market exchange and regulatory body.

Emerging market debt (EMD) is a term used to describe bonds issued by less developed countries. This type of debt is primarily issued by sovereign (government) issuers, and may be denominated in local currencies, or more heavily used currencies such as the Dollar or Euro.

Empire State Manufacturing Index.

The Empire State Manufacturing Index is a seasonally adjusted index that tracks the results of the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The survey is distributed to roughly 175 manufacturing executives and asks questions intended to gauge both the current sentiment of the executives and their six-month outlook on the sector.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly release which gives information on the costs of labor for businesses in the United States.

Relatório de Situação do Emprego.

The monthly jobs report (known as the employment situation report) is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys distributed in one monthly report by the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The report includes the unemployment rate, non-farm payroll employment, the average number of hours per week worked in the non-farm sector, and the average basic hourly rate for major industries.

Energy Information Administration.

US government agency responsible for data collection, analysis and forecasting of energy-related statistics in support of efficient markets, sound policymaking and transparency.

Earnings per share (EPS) is the portion of a company’s profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock. EPS serves as an indicator of a company’s profitability. Earnings per share is generally considered to be the single most important variable in determining a share’s price. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-to-earnings valuation ratio.

Equity Sensitivity: As investors move further down in the capital structure, equity sensitivity begins to play a larger role. When investors look for less yield and more total return (capital appreciation) in certain asset classes, the equity sensitivity also plays an increasing role in absolute risk. Investments such as convertible bonds, preferred stocks, and dividend-paying stocks have higher correlation to the equity markets and are more subject to equity sensitivity than fixed income investments such as U. S. Treasuries.

Euro Interbank Offer Rate (EURIBOR)

The rate of interest at which prime banks borrow funds from other prime banks in the European Union (EU) interbank market.

Group of seventeen European countries that have adopted the Euro as their currency.

The EURO STOXX 50 Index is a blue-chip index for the Eurozone, which covers 50 stocks from 12 Eurozone countries: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain.

The EuroStoxx 600 Banks is a subset of the EuroStoxx 600 Index of banking stocks, there are 47 constituents in this index.

Excess Returns are the returns in excess of the risk-free rate or in excess of a market measure, such as an index fund.

Existing home sales is a measure of the number and price of sales of single family homes other than new construction.

Financial research firm that provides data and software services used by investment professionals.

FAANG is the acronym for five technology stocks: Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google (now Alphabet, Inc.).

The central bank of the United States and the most powerful financial institution in the world. The Federal Reserve Bank was founded by the U. S. Congress in 1913 to provide the nation with a safe, flexible and stable monetary and financial system. It is based on a federal system that comprises a central governmental agency (the Board of Governors) in Washington, DC and 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks that are each responsible for a specific geographic area of the U. S. The Federal Reserve Bank is considered to be independent because its decisions do not have to be ratified by the President or any other government official. However, it is still subject to Congressional oversight and must work within the framework of the government’s economic and financial policy objectives. Often known simply as “the Fed”.

Fed Funds Futures are a product offered by the Chicago Board of Trade which allow investors to speculate on what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates.

The Fed funds futures curve graphically represents the anticipated Fed funds rate at future points in time.

The Fed funds rate is the interest rate on loans by the Fed to banks to meet reserve requirements.

Predictions of the fed funds rate by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants plotted in a chart.

A broad measure of the movement of single-family house prices in the U. S.

The means by which a government influences economic growth through spending and taxation.

An international credit rating agency based out of New York City and London. The company’s ratings are used as a guide to investors as to which investments are most likely going to yield a return.

A floating rate auction is the same as a treasury auction except that the interest payments are tied to 3-month treasury bills.

Floating rate bank loans are loans issued by below investment grade companies for short term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the branch of the Federal Reserve Board that determines the direction of monetary policy. The eleven-person FOMC is composed of the seven-member board of governors, and the five Federal Reserve Bank presidents. The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York serves continuously, while the presidents of the other regional Federal Reserve Banks rotate their service in one-year terms.

Forward guidance is a tool used by a central bank to exercise its power in monetary policy in order to influence, with their own forecasts, market expectations of future levels of interest rates.

Forward Price To Earnings is a measure of the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) using forecasted earnings for the P/E calculation. While the earnings used are just an estimate and are not as reliable as current earnings data, there is still benefit in estimated P/E analysis. The forecasted earnings used in the formula can either be for the next 12 months or for the next full-year fiscal period.

Free cash flow (FCF) measure of financial performance calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. FCF represents the cash that a company is able to generate after laying out the money required to maintain or expand its asset base. Free cash flow is important because it allows a company to pursue opportunities that enhance shareholder value. Without cash, it’s tough to develop new products, make acquisitions, pay dividends and reduce debt.

The FTSE 100 is an index of blue-chip stocks on the London Stock Exchange.

The FTSE 250 Index is a capitalization-weighted index consisting of the 101st to the 350th largest companies listed on the London Stock Exchange. The FTSE 100 is a subset, comprised of the 100 largest companies traded on the London Stock Exchange.

The Financial Times Stock Index, or FTSE, is a British provider of stock market indices and associated data services, wholly owned by the London Stock Exchange.

FTSE Milano Italia Borsa (MIB)

The FTSE MIB (Milano Italia Borsa) is the stock market index benchmark for the Borsa Italiana, the Italian national stock exchange.

The term Futures refers to future contracts, a financial contract obligating the buyer to purchase an asset (or the seller to sell an asset) at a predetermined future date and price. Contracts detail the quality and quantity of the underlying asset, and are standardized to facilitate trading on a futures exchange. Futures are used to either hedge or speculate on the price movement of an underlying asset, such as a physical commodity or financial instrument.

A term used to refer to government bonds issued by a nation in the Group of Seven (G7). A G7 bond is considered relatively less risky than bonds issued by nations outside the G7. The G7 nations are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. All these nations are considered industrialized and developed countries.

Generally accepted accounting principles.

The Group of Ten (G-10) is composed of eleven countries that meet annually to discuss international financial matters. The countries agreed to participate in the General Arrangements to Borrow, which is an agreement to provide the IMF with additional funds to increase its ability to lend.

The Group of Twenty (G-20) Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors is the premier forum for our international economic development that promotes open and constructive discussion between industrial and emerging-market countries on key issues related to global economic stability. By contributing to the strengthening of the international financial architecture and providing opportunities for dialogue on national policies, international co-operation, and international financial institutions, the G-20 helps to support growth and development across the globe.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period, though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis. It includes all of private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory.

General Obligation Bonds.

General Obligation(GO) bonds are municipal bonds backed by the credit and “taxing power” of the issuing jurisdiction rather than the revenue from a given project.

Bond issued by Germany’s federal government. They are equivalent to the U. S.’ Treasury bonds.

Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS): A standardized classification system for equities developed jointly by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and Standard & Pobre. The GICS methodology is used by the MSCI indexes, which include domestic and international stocks, as well as by a large portion of the professional investment management community. The GICS hierarchy begins with 10 sectors and is followed by 24 industry groups, 67 industries and 147 sub-industries. Each stock that is classified will have a coding at all four of these levels. The 10 GIC Sectors are as follows: Energy, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Financials, Information Technology, Telecommunication Services, and Utilities.

A gilt is a bond issued by the British government, considered the U. K. equivalent of U. S. Treasuries. Generally regarded as low-risk investments.

Global Macro Strategy is a hedge fund strategy that bases its holdings–such as long and short positions in various equity, fixed income, currency, and futures markets–primarily on overall economic and political views of various countries (macroeconomic principles).

Government Employment vs Private Employment.

Private employment includes persons employed at nonfarm establishments outside federal, state and local government. Government or public sector employment includes employees at Federal, state and local governments.

The gross expense ratio is the fund’s total annual operating expense ratio. It is gross of any fee waivers or expense reimbursements.

A measure of economic output similar to gross domestic product (GDP) which includes all taxes received and excludes subsidies on products.

Guaranteed Lifetime Withdrawal Benefit (GLWB)

Guaranteed Lifetime Withdrawal Benefit (GLWB) is a rider on a variable annuity that allows minimum withdrawals from the invested amount without having to annuitize the investment. The amount that can be withdrawn is based on a percentage of the total amount invested in the annuity.

The Hang Seng index is a market capitalization weighted index which tracks daily changes of the 48 largest companies in the Hong Kong stock market.

Housing starts are the number of new residential construction projects that have begun during any particular month.

The presidents of regional Federal Reserve Banks are commonly classified as hawks or doves. Hawks generally favor tighter monetary policy, with less monetary support from the Federal Reserve. Doves are the opposite, generally favoring easing of monetary policy.

High Yield bond portfolios concentrate on lower-quality bonds, which are riskier than those of higher-quality companies. These portfolios generally offer higher yields than other types of portfolios, but they are also more vulnerable to economic and credit risk. These portfolios primarily invest in U. S. high-income debt securities where at least 65% or more of bond assets are not rated or are rated by a major agency such as Standard & Poor’s or Moody’s at the level of BB (considered speculative for taxable bonds) and below.

High-Yield spread is the yield differential between the average yield of high-yield bonds and the average yield of comparable maturity Treasury bonds.

The Índice Bursátil Español, or IBEX, is the principal benchmark of the Spanish stock market, the Bolsa de Madrid.

The Federal Reserve’s monthly index of industrial production and the related capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates cover manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. The industrial sector, together with construction, accounts for the bulk of the variation in national output over the course of the business cycle. The industrial detail provided by these measures helps illuminate structural developments in the economy.

Information Ratio: A risk-adjusted return measure that indicates the risk of the portfolio relative to the benchmark. It is the excess return divided by the Tracking Error.

Ifo Business Climate Index.

The Ifo Business Climate Index is a leading economic indicator in Germany. Data is compiled from surveys sent to 7000 participants from firms in construction, manufacturing, retailing, and wholesaling, who are asked to assess their current business situation as well as their business outlook for the next six months.

The Ifo Institute is one of the leading economic research institutes in Europe and at the same time the one most often quoted in the German media.

The rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and, subsequently, purchasing power is falling.

Initial Jobless Claims is a measure of the number of jobless claims filed by individuals seeking to receive state jobless benefits. This number is watched closely by financial analysts because it provides insight into the direction of the economy. Higher initial claims correlate with a weakening economy.

Oferta Pública Inicial (IPO)

An initial Public Offering (IPO) is the first sale of stock by a private company to the public.

An Insured Bond is a bond with interest and principle payments insured by a third party. Insured bonds are usually found as a feature of municipal bonds; they are purchased, underwritten and repackaged by a financial guarantee company who then sells the issue to investors.

Interest Rate Risk is the risk that an investment’s value will change due to a change in the absolute level of interest rates, in the spread between two rates, in the shape of the yield curve or in any other interest rate relationship. Such changes usually affect securities inversely and can be reduced by diversifying (investing in fixed-income securities with different durations) or hedging (e. g. through an interest rate swap).

International Council of Shopping Centers (ISCS)

International Council of Shopping Centers (ISCS) measured nominal same-store or comparable store sales excluding restaurant and vehicle demand.

International Energy Agency (IEA)

An international agency which provides policy advice to 28 member countries. The International Energy Agency (IEA) was founded in 1973-74 during an oil crisis in order to help ensure energy security for member nations. The agency’s primary mandate is to focus on the policies regarding the “three Es”: energy security, economic development and environmental protection.

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an international organization created for the purpose of promoting global monetary and exchange stability, facilitating the expansion and balanced growth of international trade, and assisting in the establishment of a multilateral system of payments for current transactions.

Investment Company Institute (ICI)

The Investment Company Institute (ICI) is the national association of U. S. investment companies, including mutual funds, closed-end funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and unit investment trusts (UITs). Members of ICI manage total assets of $11.18 trillion and serve nearly 90 million shareholders.

Jobless Claims is the number of people who are filing or have filed to receive unemployment insurance benefits, as reported weekly by the U. S. Department of Labor. There are two categories of jobless claims – initial, which comprises people filing for the first time, and continuing, which consists of unemployed people who have been receiving unemployment benefits for a while. Jobless claims are an important leading indicator on the state of the employment situation and the health of the economy. Average weekly initial jobless claims are one of the 10 components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is a survey done by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers including retailers, manufacturers and different offices each month. Respondents to the survey answer quantitative and qualitative questions about their businesses’ employment, job openings, recruitment, hires and separations. The JOLTS data is published monthly and by region and industry.

JP Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index.

The JPMorgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global (“EMBI Global”) tracks total returns for traded external debt instruments in the emerging markets, and is an expanded version of the JPMorgan EMBI+. As with the EMBI+, the EMBI Global includes U. S. dollar-denominated Brady bonds, loans, and Eurobonds with an outstanding face value of at least $500 million. It covers more of the eligible instruments than the EMBI+ by relaxing somewhat the strict EMBI+ limits on secondary market trading liquidity.

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index or KOSPI is the index of all common stocks traded on the Stock Market Division—previously, Korea Stock Exchange—of the Korea Exchange.

Korea Composite Stock Price Index.

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index or KOSPI is the index of all common stocks traded on the Stock Market Division—previously, Korea Stock Exchange—of the Korea Exchange.

Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI)

The labor market conditions index (LMCI) assesses changes in labor market conditions. The LMCI is derived from a dynamic factor model that extracts the primary common variation from 19 labor market indicators.

Large cap refers to a company with a market capitalization value of more than $10 billion.

An economic indicator that changes before the economy has changed. Examples of leading indicators include production workweek, building permits, unemployment insurance claims, money supply, inventory changes, and stock prices. The Fed watches many of these indicators as it decides what to do about interest rates.

The Leading Economic Index is a monthly publication from the Conference Board that attempts to predict future movements in the economy based on a composite of 10 economic indicators whose changes tend to precede changes in the overall economy.

By using a combination of assets, debt, equity, and interest payments, leverage ratios are used to understand a company’s ability to meet it long-term financial obligations. The three most widely used leverage ratios are the debt ratio, debt-to-equity ratio, and interest coverage ratio. The debt ratio gives an indication of a company’s total liabilities in relation to their total assets. The higher the ratio, the more leverage the company is using and the more risk it is assuming.

London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor): An interest rate at which banks can borrow funds, in marketable size, from other banks in the London interbank market. The Libor is fixed on a daily basis by the British Bankers’ Associação. The Libor is derived from a filtered average of the world’s most creditworthy banks’ interbank deposit rates for larger loans with maturities between overnight and one full year.

A series of benchmarks comprised of mutual funds that, grouped by investment category, for the purpose of making performance comparisons.

Liquidity risk is the risk stemming from the lack of marketability of an investment that cannot be bought or sold quickly enough to prevent or minimize a loss.

The velocity of M1 is personal income divided by the M1 money supply. The M1 money supply consists of (1) currency outside the U. S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) traveler’s checks of nonbank issuers; (3) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U. S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (4) other checkable deposits (OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) and automatic transfer service (ATS) accounts at depository institutions, credit union share draft accounts, and demand deposits at thrift institutions.

The money supply is an economic term for the total amount of currency and other liquid assets available in an economy at a point in time. There are several ways to define this number. M1 includes physical money such as coins and currency, checking accounts (demand deposits), and Negotiable Order of Withdrawal (NOW) accounts. M2 includes all of M1, plus time-related deposits, savings deposits, and non-institutional money-market funds.

Low correlation means that different asset types have not performed in the same way: When returns on some asset types were declining, returns on others were gaining.

M3 is a measure of money supply that includes M2 as well as large time deposits, institutional money market funds, short-term repurchase agreements, and other larger liquid assets.

Machine orders data (also known as machine tool order data) is a figure issued by Japan Machine Tool Builders Association (JMTBA) every month. It serves as one indicator of the Japanese economy.

Managed Futures funds use systematic quantitative programs to find and invest in positive and negative trends in the futures markets for financials and commodities. Historically, the benefit of managed futures have been solid long-term returns with very low correlation to equities and fixed income securities.

Margin debt is debt used to purchase securities within an investment account. Margin debt carries an interest rate, and the amount of margin debt will change daily as the value of the underlying securities changes.

Term used to describe the ratio of advancing securities to declining securities on a stock exchange.

A company’s market capitalization is the market value of its outstanding shares. Market capitalization is calculated by multiplying the number of a company’s shares outstanding by its stock price per share. Classifications such as large-cap, mid-cap and small-cap are only approximations and may change over time.

Master Limited Partnership (MLP)

Master Limited Partnership (MLP) is a type of limited partnership that is publicly traded. There are two types of partners in this type of partnership: The limited partner is the person or group that provides the capital to the MLP and receives periodic income distributions from the MLP’s cash flow, whereas the general partner is the party responsible for managing the MLP’s affairs and receives compensation that is linked to the performance of the venture.

Master Limited Partnership (MLP) – Risco.

Investing in MLPs involves additional risks as compared to the risks of investing in common stock, including risks related to cash flow, dilution and voting rights. MLPs may trade less frequently than larger companies due to their smaller capitalizations which may result in erratic price movement or difficulty in buying or selling. MLPs are subject to significant regulation and may be adversely affected by changes in the regulatory environment including the risk that an MLP could lose its tax status as a partnership. Additional management fees and other expenses are associated with investing in MLP funds.

A market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. It is primarily used for short and intermediate term trading.

Merger Arbitrage is a hedge fund strategy in which the stocks of two merging companies are simultaneously bought and sold to create a riskless profit. A merger arbitrageur looks at the risk that the merger deal will not close on time, or at all. Because of this slight uncertainty, the target company’s stock will typically sell at a discount to the price that the combined company will have when the merger is closed. This discrepancy is the arbitrageur’s profit.

Merril Lynch Preferred Stock Hybrid Index.

The index measures the performance of preferred stock securities.

The MICEX Index is a capitalization-weighted composite index calculated based on prices of the 50 most liquid Russian stocks.

A mid-cap company is a company with a market capitalization between $2 billion and $10 billion. The prices of mid-cap stocks are generally more volatile than large cap stocks.

The tendency for market price to continue to move in the same direction as the overall trend.

The money supply is an economic term for the total amount of currency and other liquid assets available in an economy at a point in time. There are several ways to define this number. M1 includes physical money such as coins and currency, checking accounts (demand deposits), and Negotiable Order of Withdrawal (NOW) accounts. M2 includes all of M1, plus time-related deposits, savings deposits, and non-institutional money-market funds.

Monetary policy is the process through which the monetary authority (central bank, currency board, or other regulatory committee) of a country controls the size and rate of growth of the money supply, which in turn affects interest rates.

An independent, unaffiliated research company that rates fixed income securities. Moody’s assigns ratings on the basis of risk and the borrower’s ability to make interest payments.

Mortgage-Backed Security (MBS) – Definição.

A mortgage-backed security (MBS) is a type of asset-backed security that is secured by a mortgage, or more commonly a collection (“pool”) of sometimes hundreds of mortgages. The mortgages are sold to a financial institution (a government agency or investment bank) that “securitizes”, or packages, the loans together into a security that can be sold to investors. The structure of the MBS may be known as “pass-through”, where the interest and principal payments from the borrower or homebuyer pass through it to the MBS holder, or it may be more complex, made up of a pool of other MBSs.

MSCI All Country World Index.

The MSCI All Country World Index is an unmanaged, free-float-adjusted, market capitalization-weighted index composed of stocks of companies located in countries throughout the world. It is designed to measure equity market performance in global developed and emerging markets. The index includes reinvestment of dividends, net of foreign withholding taxes.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is comprised of more than 900 companies representing approximately 85% of market capitalization for 5 developed and 8 emerging markets countries in the Asia Pacific region.

The MSCI China H Index includes large-cap and mid-cap companies that are incorporated in mainland China and traded on the Hong Kong exchange.

The MSCI EAFE Index is made up of approximately 1,045 equity securities issued by companies located in 19 countries and listed on the stock exchanges of Europe, Australia, and the Far East. All values are expressed in U. S. dollars. O desempenho passado não é garantia de resultados futuros.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to.

measure equity market performance of emerging markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index consists of the following 21 emerging market country indices: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt,

Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South.

Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, and Turkey.

MSCI KLD 400 Social Index.

The MSCI KLD 400 Social Index is a capitalization weighted index of 400 U. S. securities that provides exposure to companies with outstanding Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) ratings and excludes companies whose products have negative social or environmental impacts. The parent index is MSCI USA IMI, an equity index of large, mid and small cap companies.

A municipal bond is a debt security issued by a state, municipality, or county to finance its capital expenditures. These bonds are usually exempt from federal taxes, and may also be exempt from state and local taxes, especially if the investor lives in the state where the bond is issued.

Municipal Market Advisors.

Municipal Market Advisors is an independent strategy, research and advisory firm.

Municipal-to-Treasury Yield Ratio.

The Municipal-to-Treasury Yield compares the current yield of municipal bonds to US Treasuries of the same maturity. E se.

the ratio is at 100%, it indicates that the yield on a AAA-rated municipal bond is the same as a Treasury security of the same maturity. The ratio can be used as a gauge of price levels of municipal bonds relative to Treasuries.

Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board (MSRB)

The Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board (MSRB) writes investor protection rules and other rules regulating broker-dealers and banks in the United States municipal securities market, including tax-exempt and taxable municipal bonds, municipal notes, and other securities issued by states, cities, and counties or their agencies to help finance public projects or for other public policy purposes.

The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US equity markets by its members.

National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index.

The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index is based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. The survey asks respondents to rate market conditions for the sale of new homes at the present time and in the next 6 months as well as the traffic of prospective buyers of new homes.

The NASDAQ-100 is composed of the 100 largest domestic and international non-financial securities listed on The Nasdaq Stock Market. The Index reflects companies across major industry groups including computer hardware and software, telecommunications, retail/wholesale trade and biotechnology, but does not contain securities of financial companies.

National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO)

The National Association of State Budget Officers is a professional membership organization for state finance officers, and is the instrument through which the states collectively advance state budget practices.

National Retail Federation (NRF)

The National Retail Federation (NRF) is a retail trade association with members from all types of retail suppliers. Members include department stores, specialty, discount, catalog, internet and independent retailers, restaurant chains and grocers, as well as businesses that supply goods and services to retailers. The NRF forms an umbrella over more than 100 other state, national and international retail associations.

The Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government is a public policy research institute that conducts studies and related projects on state and local government and finance, American federalism, public management, and New York State issues.

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.

The small business optimism index is compiled from a survey that is conducted each month by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) of its members. The index is a composite of ten seasonally adjusted components based on questions on the following: plans to increase employment, plans to make capital outlays, plans to increase inventories, expect economy to improve, expect real sales higher, current inventory, current job openings, expected credit conditions, now a good time to expand, and earnings trend.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) is Britain’s independent economic research institute.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average is a price-weighted index comprised of the top 225 blue-chip companies on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Non-rated refers to bonds that have not been assigned a credit rating by large credit rating agencies such as Standard & Poor’s or Moody’s.

Non-rated bonds have not been issued a rating by bond rating agencies such as Standard and Poors and Moodys. Bonds that have not been rated by an agency are usually considered to be junk bonds or fall below investment grade.

Non-Financial Commercial Paper.

Non-financial commercial paper is short term debt (maturities less than 270 days) issued by nonfinancial corporations.

The New York Stock Exchange is based in New York City, and is considered the largest equities-based exchange in the world based on total market capitalization of its listed securities. s.

An organization consisting of the world’s major oil-exporting nations. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was founded in 1960 to coordinate the petroleum policies of its members, and to provide member states with technical and economic aid. OPEC is a cartel that aims to manage the supply of oil in an effort to set the price of oil on the world market, in order to avoid fluctuations that might affect the economies of both producing and purchasing countries.

The subsidiaries of NASDAQ Inc. that provide financial services and operate marketplaces for securities in the Nordic and Baltic countries.

Operation Twist is the name given to a Federal Reserve monetary policy operation that involves the purchase and sale of bonds. “Operation Twist” describes a monetary process where the Fed buys and sells short-term and long-term bonds depending on their objective.

Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT)

A program of the European Central Bank under which the bank makes purchases (“outright transactions”) in secondary, sovereign bond markets, under certain conditions, of bonds issued by Eurozone member-states.

A technical analysis term that describes the state of a security in which the price has made an extended move to the upside. When prices reach these levels, a correction is possible.

The non-farm payroll report is intended to represent the total number of paid workers in the U. S. minus farm employees, government employees, private household employees and employees of nonprofit organizations.

P/B Multiple Compares a stock’s market value to the value of total assets less total liabilities (book value). Determined by dividing current stock price by common stockholder equity per share (book value), adjusted for stock splits.

The P/E ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) is a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the annual net income or profit earned by the firm per share. It is a financial ratio used for valuation: a higher P/E ratio means that investors are paying more for each unit of net income, so the stock is more expensive compared to one with lower P/E ratio.

Central bank of mainland China which controls monetary policy and regulates financial institutions.

A tool for comparing the prices of different common stocks by assessing how much the market is willing to pay a share of each corporation’s estimated future earnings. It is calculated by dividing the current market price of a stock by the earnings per share estimate for the future period.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is a measure of price changes in consumer goods and services, targeted towards goods and services consumed by individuals. PCE is released monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Personal income is the dollar value of income from all sources by individuals in the U. S., and is reported monthly along with personal spending (or personal outlays) by the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Personal spending is the dollar value of purchases of durable and non-durable goods and services by consumers in the U. S. and is reported monthly along with personal income by the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Philadelphia Federal Index is a regional federal-reserve-bank index measuring changes in business growth. The index is constructed from a survey of participants who voluntarily answer questions regarding the direction of change in their overall business activities. The survey is a measure of regional manufacturing growth. When the index is above 0 it indicates factory-sector growth, and when below 0 indicates contraction.

The Philadelphia Fed Survey is a business outlook survey used to construct an index that tracks manufacturing conditions in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. The Philadelphia Fed survey is an indicator of trends in the manufacturing sector, and is correlated with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index, as well as the industrial production index.

Porter’s five forces is a framework for the industry analysis and business strategy development developed by Michael E. Porter of Harvard Business School in 1979. It draws upon Industrial Organization (IO) economics to derive five forces that determine the competitive intensity and therefore attractiveness of a market. Attractiveness in this context refers to the overall industry profitability. An “unattractive” industry is one in which the combination of these five forces acts to drive down overall profitability. A very unattractive industry would be one approaching “pure competition”, in which available profits for all firms are driven down to zero.

Producer Price Index is an inflationary indicator published by the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to evaluate wholesale price levels in the economy.

Price to book ratio is the stock’s capitalization divided by its book value. The value is the same whether the calculation is done for the whole company or on a per-share basis. This ratio compares the market’s valuation of a company to the value of that company as indicated on its financial statements.

Price to Book Value is a ratio used to compare a stock’s market value to its book value.

Price to Cash Flow is a measure of the market’s expectations of a firm’s future financial health.

Price to Dividends is the ratio of the price of a share on a stock exchange to the dividends per share paid in the previous year, used as a measure of a company’s potential as an investment.

Price to Forward Earnings.

Price to Forward Earnings is a measure of the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) using forecasted earnings for the P/E calculation.

Price to Net Asset Value.

Price to Net Asset Value per share ratio is calculated as the previous day’s closing share price divided by net tangible asset value (NTAV) per share.

Principal-Protected Note – PPN is a fixed-income security that guarantees a minimum return equal to the investor’s initial investment (the principal amount).

Private equity is money invested in companies that are not publicly traded on a stock exchange or that is invested as part of buyouts of publicly traded companies in order to make them private companies.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a series of indexes that measure the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. The headline PPI (for finished goods) is a measure of the average price level for a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods for prices received by producers.

Índice de gerentes de compras (PMI)

Purchasing Managers Indexes are economic indicators derived from monthly surveys of private sector companies, and are intended to show the economic health of the manufacturing sector. A PMI of more than 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, a reading below 50 indicates contraction, and a reading of 50 indicates no change. The two principal producers of PMIs are Markit Group, which conducts PMIs for over 30 countries worldwide, and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), which conducts PMIs for the US.

Paridade de poder de compra (PPP)

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is an economic theory that estimates the amount of adjustment needed on the exchange rate between countries in order for the exchange to be equivalent to each currency’s purchasing power.

Purchasing power risk or Inflation risk.

Purchasing power risk is the risk that unexpected changes in consumer prices will penalize an investor’s real return from holding an investment. Because investments from gold to bonds and stock are priced to include expected inflation rates, it is the unexpected changes that produce this risk. Fixed income securities, such as bonds and preferred stock, subject investors to the greatest amount of purchasing power risk since their payments are set at the time of issue and remain unchanged regardless of the inflation rate.

Quantitative Easing (QE) refers to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) current and/or past programs whereby the Fed purchases a set amount of Treasury and/or Mortgage-Backed securities each month from banks. This inserts more money in the economy (known as easing), which is intended to encourage economic growth.

Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB)

Gasoline futures contract.

Real Estate Investment Trust.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)

The Reserve Bank of Australia is Australia’s central bank. It’s main responsibility is involvement in Australia’s monetary policy.

Retail sales measure the total receipts at retail and food services stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U. S. Bureau of the Census. Retail sales cover both the durables and nondurables portions of consumer spending, which together typically accounts for about two-thirds of GDP, and is therefore a key element in economic growth.

Risco-on risco-off refere-se a mudanças na atividade de investimento em resposta aos padrões econômicos globais. During periods when risk is perceived as low, risk-on risk-off theory states that investors tend to engage in higher-risk investments. When risk is perceived as high, investors have the tendency to gravitate toward lower-risk investments.

Required return in excess of the risk-free rate.

Um indicador de como uma empresa é lucrativa em relação ao total de ativos. ROA gives an idea as to how efficient management is at using its assets to generate earnings. Calculated by dividing a company’s annual earnings by its total assets, ROA is displayed as a percentage.

O valor do lucro líquido retornou como um percentual do patrimônio líquido. Return on equity measures a corporation’s profitability by revealing how much profit a company generates with the money shareholders have invested.

A calculation used to assess a company’s efficiency at allocating the capital under its control to profitable investments. The return on invested capital measure gives a sense of how well a company is using its money to generate returns.

R-Squared: Indicates what percentage of a manager’s movement in performance is explained by movement in performance in its benchmark. R-squared ranges from 0 to 100 and a score of 100 suggests that all movements of a manager’s performance are completely explained by movements in the index.

Russell 1000 Growth Index.

Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.

Russell 1000® ValueIndex measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies considered undervalued relative to comparable companies.

The Russell 2000 Index is an unmanaged index generally representative of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell Index, which represents approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index.

A capitalization weighted index of 2,000 small cap and micro cap stocks that captures the smallest 1,000 companies in the Russell 2000, plus 1,000 smaller U. S.-based listed stocks.

The Russell Midcap Index measures the performance of the 800 smallest companies in the Russell 1000 Index.

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)

U. S. federal agency responsible for the oversight of the country’s stock and option exchanges.

A price-weighted index composed of 18 U. S. semiconductor companies primarily involved in the design, distribution, manufacture, and sale of semiconductors.

An abbreviation of the Bombay Exchange Sensitive Index (Sensex) – the benchmark index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). It is composed of 30 of the largest and most actively-traded stocks on the BSE. Initially compiled in 1986, the Sensex is the oldest stock index in India.

The Russell 2000 Index is an unmanaged index generally representative of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell Index, which represents approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index.

The SET index is an index calculated based on the prices of all common stocks that trade on the main board of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), other than those that have been suspended more than one year.

A simple moving average (SMA) is a simple, or arithmetic, moving average that is calculated by adding the closing price of the security for a number of time periods and then dividing this total by the number of time periods. Short-term averages respond quickly to changes in the price of the underlying, while long-term averages are slow to react.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index tracks the daily price performance of all A-shares and B-shares listedon the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The index was developed on December 19, 1990 with a base value of 100. Index trade volume on Q is scaled down by a factor of 1000.

Sharpe Ratio: A risk-adjusted measure of performance evaluation. It compares the return above the risk-free rate earned as compared to the corresponding risk assumed by the portfolio, as measured by standard deviation. Good risk-adjusted performance is indicated by a higher Sharpe Ratio.

The Shenzhen Index is an index of 40 stocks that trade on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in China. Many of the companies within this market are subsidiaries of state-run companies.

Percentage of shares outstanding that have been borrowed and sold short.

Short selling (also known as shorting or going short) is the practice of selling assets, usually securities, that have been borrowed from a third party (usually a broker) with the intention of buying identical assets back at a later date to return to the lender. The short seller hopes to profit from a decline in the price of the assets between the sale and the repurchase, as the seller will pay less to buy the assets than the seller received on selling them.

Spot Rate Treasury Curve(SPI)

A yield curve made using Treasury spot rates rather than yields.

Small cap é um termo usado para classificar empresas com uma capitalização de mercado relativamente pequena. The definition of small cap can vary, but it is generally a company with a market capitalization of between $300 million and $2 billion. The prices of small cap stocks are generally more volatile than large cap stocks.

Measures country level performance while incorporating the impact on people and the environment.

Special purpose vehicles (SPV)

A legal entity, generally a subsidiary, created for a specific purpose with a corporate structure that secures its assets, even in the event the parent company goes bankrupt.

Spread is the difference between the bid and the ask price of a security or asset.

High-Yield spread is the yield differential between the average yield of high-yield bonds and the average yield of comparable maturity Treasury bonds.

S&P CoreLogic Home Price Index.

The S&P CoreLogic Home Price Index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the U. S. The composite indexes and the regional indexes are seen by the markets as measuring changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home re-sales.

O padrão & amp; Poor’s 100 Index is a part of the S&P 500 Index that measures the stock performance of 100 of the largest companies in the S&P 500.

O padrão & amp; Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

An index of small-cap stocks managed by Standard and Poor’s. The S&P 600 SmallCap Index covers a broad range of small cap stocks in the United States. The index is weighted according to market capitalization and covers about 3-4% of the total market for equities in the United States.

Sovereign Debt is the amount of money that a country’s government has borrowed, typically issued as bonds denominated in a reserve currency.

Standard deviation is a historical measure of the variability of returns relative to the average annual return. A higher number indicates higher overall volatility.

The STOXX Europe 600 Index is derived from the STOXX Europe Total Market Index (TMI) and is a subset of the STOXX Global 1800 Index. With a fixed number of 600 components, the STOXX Europe 600 Index represents large, mid and small capitalization companies across 18 countries of the European region: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.

S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Total Return Index.

The S&P LSTA U. S. Leveraged Loan 100 Index measures the performance of the largest facilities in the leveraged loan market.

The strategic asset allocation process projects a three - to five-year time period. While the strength of the asset allocation decisions is retested often, we do not anticipate making adjustments until midway through the strategic time frame, which generally is about every two to three years. If significant market fluctuations warrant a change, adjustments may be made sooner.

Systemically Important Financial Institution (SIFI)

A systemically important financial institution (SIFI) is a financial institution whose failure might trigger broader problems for the economy.

Swap is a derivative in which counterparties exchange certain benefits of one party’s financial instrument for those of the other party’s financial instrument. The benefits in question depend on the type of financial instruments involved.

The Tankan Survey is an economic survey conducted by the Bank of Japan of thousands of Japanese businesses, where businesses are asked about current trends and conditions, as well as business expectations for the next quarter and year.

Tapering refers to the Federal Reserve (Fed) slowing the pace of bond purchases in their Quantitative Easing (QE) program. To execute QE, the Fed purchases a set amount of Treasury and Mortgage-Backed bonds each month from banks. This inserts more money in the economy (known as easing), which is intended to encourage economic growth. Lowering the amount of purchases (tapering) would indicate less easing of monetary policy.

Tactical portfolios are designed to be monitored over a shorter time frame to potentially take advantage of opportunities as short as a few months, weeks, or even days. For these portfolios, more timely changes may allow investors to benefit from rapidly changing opportunities within the market.

Tail risk is a technical measure of portfolio risk that arises when there is an increased probability that an investment will experience a price swing much larger than it would be expected to under normal conditions. Tail risks include market events that generally would have a small chance of occurring.

Tax Awareness: In the Tax Aware portfolios, LPL Financial Research places an emphasis on minimizing the impact of taxes. These portfolios employ investments and strategies that attempt to limit the effect of taxes.

The TED spread is the yield differential between three-month London interbank offered rate (Libor) and the three-month U. S. T-bill rate. The European version of this measure would consider the difference between the three-month Euribor (interbank lending rate) and the three month German T-bill yield. This is considered an effective measure of the liquidity available to banks.

Technical analysis is a method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security’s intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest future activity.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis is a division of the U. S. federal government’s Department of Commerce that is responsible for the analysis and reporting of economic data used to confirm and predict economic trends and business cycles. Reports from the Bureau of Economic Analysis are the foundation upon which many economic policy decisions are made by government, and many investment decisions are made in the private sector by companies and individual investors.

The Bureau Of Labor Statistics.

The Bureau Of Labor Statistics is a government agency that produces economic data that reflects the state of the U. S. economy. This data includes the Consumer Price Index, the unemployment rate and the Producer Price Index.

The Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.

The Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act is a federal statute in the United States that was signed into law by President Barack Obama on July 21, 2010. The Act implements financial regulatory reform sponsored by the Democratically controlled 111th United States Congress and the Obama administration. Passed as a response to the late-2000s recession.

The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States. Its unique structure includes a federal government agency, the Board of Governors, in Washington, D. C., and 12 regional Reserve Banks (Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Kansas city, Minneapolis, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, San Francisco, and St. Louis).

The Federal Reserve Bank.

The Federal Reserve Bank is the banks that carry out Fed operations, including controlling the money supply and regulating member banks. There are 12 District Feds, headquartered in Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, St. Louis, San Francisco, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City and Dallas.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an organization of 187 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world.

The Irish Stock Exchange (ISEQ)

The Irish Stock Exchange (ISEQ) is a limited company trading equities, government and corporate bonds, investment funds, and specialist securities such as asset-backed debt, securitized bonds, and warrants. Most company securities trade on ISE Xetra, the exchange’s electronic trading system, and are settled in CREST. Irish government bonds are traded on EuroMTS, the electronic trading system for market makers in Irish government bonds, and are settled through Euroclear.

The Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)

The Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) brings together the governments of countries committed to democracy and the market economy from around the world to support sustainable economic growth, Boost employment, raise living standards, maintain financial stability, assist other countries’ economic development, and contribute to growth in world trade.

The Plaza Accord is a 1985 agreement among the G-5 nations (France, Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan) to manipulate exchange rates by depreciating the U. S. dollar relative to the Japanese yen and the German Deutsche mark. Also known as the Plaza Agreement, the Plaza Accord’s intention was to correct trade imbalances between the U. S. and Germany and the U. S. and Japan, but it only corrected the trade balance with the former.

The Richmond Fed is one of 12 Reserve Banks that, including the Board of Governors, encompasses the Federal Reserve System with offices located in Richmond, Baltimore and Charlotte. Our regions include Virginia, Maryland, the Carolinas, the District of Columbia and most of West Virginia.

The Statutory Debt Limit.

The Statutory Debt Limit was established under the Second Liberty Bond Act of 1917 that limits the amount of public debt that can be outstanding. The Statutory Debt Limit, or debt ceiling, prevents the U. S. Treasury from issuing new debt once the limit has been reached. However, the debt limit can be raised, and has often been raised, with approval from the U. S. Congress.

The Supplementary Financing Program (SFP)

The Federal Reserve working with the Treasury Department launched the SFP during the fall of 2008 in response to the financial crisis. The SFP allowed for a vast increase in t-bill issuance and was intended as an emergency measure to improve liquidity in the financial system. As liquidity improved and financial markets recovered the SFP gradually declined before its recent increase.

The United States Census Bureau.

The United States Census Bureau is a division of the federal government of the United States Bureau of Commerce that is responsible for conducting the national census at least once every 10 years, in which the population of the United States is counted. The Bureau of Census is also responsible for collecting data on the people, economy and country of the United States.

A global information provider headquartered in London, England, and serving professionals in the financial services, media and corporate markets. The news agency provides text, graphics, video and pictures to subscribers around the world, including general and economic news.

Tracking Error: A measure of the consistency or volatility (standard deviation) of excess returns relative to a benchmark.

The sum of a company’s price-to-earnings, calculated by taking the current stock price and dividing it by the trailing earnings per share for the past 12 months. This measure differs from forward P/E, which uses earnings estimates for the next four quarters.

Treasuries are a marketable, fixed-interest U. S. government debt security. Treasury bonds make interest.

payments semi-annually and the income that holders receive is only taxed at the federal level.

A Treasury Bill, or T-Bill is a short-term obligation with a maturity of less than one year backed by the U. S. Government. T-Bills are issued at a discount from par, while the investor receives full par value at maturity. T-Bills don’t pay interest payments like conventional bonds, and instead the price appreciation is the return the investor receives.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)

Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) help limit inflation risk to your portfolio, as the principal is adjusted semiannually for inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-while providing a real rate of return guaranteed by the U. S. government. However, a few things you need to be aware of is that the CPI might not accurately match the general inflation rate; so the principal balance on TIPS may not keep pace with the actual rate of inflation. The real interest yields on TIPS may rise, especially if there is a sharp spike in interest rates. If so, the rate of return on TIPS could lag behind other types of inflation-protected securities, like floating rate notes and T-bills. TIPs do not pay the inflation-adjusted balance until maturity, and the accrued principal on TIPS could decline, if there is deflation.

Treasury International Capital (TIC)

Treasury International Capital (TIC) is select groups of capital which are monitored with regards to their international movement. Treasury international capital is used as an economic indicator that tracks the flow of Treasury and agency securities, as well as corporate bonds and equities, into and out of the United States. TIC data is important to investors, especially with the increasing amount of foreign participation in the U. S. financial markets.

Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP)

U. S. asset purchase program implemented in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis to stabilize and strengthen domestic financial and housing markets.

Unemployment occurs when people without jobs are actively seeking, but unable to find, work. The unemployment rate is a measure of the prevalence of unemployment and it is calculated as a percentage by dividing the number of unemployed individuals by all individuals currently in the labor force. An unemployment report is an economic report that shows the number of employed and unemployed workers, and may also include an unemployment rate. In the European Union this data is released monthly by Eurostat.

The unemployment rate is the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to work.

Underemployment Rate – A measure of employment and labor utilization in the economy that looks at how well the labor force is being utilized in terms of skills, experience and availability to work. Labor that falls under the underemployment classification includes those workers that are highly skilled but working in low paying jobs, workers that are highly skilled but work in low skill jobs and part-time workers that would prefer to be full-time. This is different from unemployment in that the individual is working but isn’t working at their full capability.

Up Capture / Down Capture: Measure the percentage of the benchmark’s return captured by the portfolio in up / down periods.

U. S. Institute for Supply Managers (ISM) manufacturing index.

The U. S. Institute for Supply Managers (ISM) manufacturing index is an economic indicator derived from monthly surveys of private sector companies, and is intended to show the economic health of the U. S. manufacturing sector. A PMI of more than 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, a reading below 50 indicates contraction, and a reading of 50 indicates no change.

Vehicle sales is the number of domestically produced units of cars, SUVs, minivans, and light trucks that are sold. These sales are reported on the first business day of the month.

The VIX is a measure of the volatility implied in the prices of options contracts for the S&P 500. It is a market-based estimate of future volatility. When sentiment reaches one extreme or the other, the market typically reverses course. While this is not necessarily predictive it does measure the current degree of fear present in the stock market.

The Volcker Rule is a specific section of the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act originally proposed by American economist and former United States Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker to restrict United States banks from making certain kinds of speculative investments that do not benefit their customers.

Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

The Energy Information Administration’s report published every Wednesday containing commentary on oil supply and demand, as well as statistical data on crude oil and other petroleum products.

Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

The Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index (Wilshire 5000) measures the performance of all U. S. equity securities with readily available price data. Approximately 5,000 capitalization-weighted security returns are used to adjust the index. The Wilshire 5000 base is its December 31, 1980 capitalization of $1,404.596 billion.

World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is a monthly report published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) providing comprehensive forecast of supply and demand for major crops (global and United States) and livestock (U. S. only).

Citigroup World Government Bond Index (WASDE)

The World Government Bond Index measures the performance of fixed-rate, local currency, investment-grade sovereign bonds.

Yield is the income return on an investment. This refers to the interest or dividends received from a security and is usually expressed annually as a percentage based on the investment’s cost, its current market value or its face value.

Yield Curve is a line that plots the interest rates, at a set point in time, of bonds having equal credit quality, but differing maturity dates. The most frequently reported yield curve compares the three-month, two-year, five-year and 30-year U. S. Treasury debt. This yield curve is used as a benchmark for other debt in the market, such as mortgage rates or bank lending rates. The curve is also used to predict changes in economic output and growth.

Situation where longer term interest rate fall below shorter term interest rates.

Yield Spread is the difference between yields on differing debt instruments, calculated by deducting the yield of one instrument from another. The higher the yield spread, the greater the difference between the yields offered by each instrument. The spread can be measured between debt instruments of differing maturities, credit ratings and risk.

Assumed yield if the security is held to maturity.

ZEW Survey is a main indicator of investors’ confiança. It is calculated on basis of 350 analysts’ and institutional investors’ polling. The indicator reflects the difference between analysts who are optimistic about forthcoming economic development of Germany within six months and those who are pessimistic. The Survey is used for German economic prospects estimation. ZEW Survey growth causes the euro growth.

The Consumer Discretionary Sector.

Companies that tend to be the most sensitive to economic cycles. Its manufacturing segment includes automotive, household durable goods, textiles and apparel, and leisure equipment. The service segment includes hotels, restaurants and other leisure facilities, media production and services, consumer retailing and services, and education services.

Companies whose businesses are less sensitive to economic cycles. It includes manufacturers and distributors of food, beverages and tobacco, and producers of non-durable household goods and personal products. It also includes food and drug retailing companies.

An equity security whose price is affected by ups and downs in the overall economy. Cyclical stocks typically relate to companies that sell discretionary items that consumers can afford to buy more of in a booming economy and will cut back on during a recession. Contrast cyclical stocks with counter-cyclical stocks, which tend to move in the opposite direction from the overall economy, and with consumer staples, which people continue to demand even during a downturn.

Companies whose businesses are dominated by either of the following activities: The construction or provision of oil rigs, drilling equipment and other energy-related service and equipment, including seismic data collection. The exploration, production, marketing, refining and/or transportation of oil and gas products, coal and consumable fuels.

Companies involved in activities such as banking, consumer finance, investment banking and brokerage, asset management, insurance and investment, and real estate, including REITs.

Companies are in two main industry groups—Health care equipment and supplies or companies that provide health care-related services, including distributors of health care products, providers of basic health care services, and owners and operators of health care facilities and organizations. Companies primarily involved in the research, development, production, and marketing of pharmaceuticals and biotechnology products.

Companies whose businesses manufacture and distribute capital goods, including aerospace and defense, construction, engineering and building products, electrical equipment and industrial machinery. Provide commercial services and supplies, including printing, employment, environmental and office services. Provide transportation services, including airlines, couriers, marine, road and rail, and transportation infrastructure.

Companies engaged in chemical, mechanical, or physical transformation of materials, substances, or components into consumer or industrial goods.

Companies that are engaged in a wide range of commodity-related manufacturing. Included in this sector are companies that manufacture chemicals, construction materials, glass, paper, forest products and related packaging products, metals, minerals and mining companies, including producers of steel.

Companies include those that primarily develop software in various fields such as the Internet, applications, systems and/or database management and companies that provide information technology consulting and services; technology hardware & Equipment, including manufacturers and distributors of communications equipment, computers and peripherals, electronic equipment and related instruments, and semiconductor equipment and products.

Telecommunications Services Sector.

Companies that provide communications services primarily through a fixed line, cellular, wireless, high bandwidth and/or fiber-optic cable network.

Companies considered electric, gas or water utilities, or companies that operate as independent producers and/or distributors of power.

Companies that are engaged in the mining, production, processing and export of coal.

S&P 500 Health Care Facilities.

Companies that own or operate health care facilities such as hospitals, long-term care facilities, and medical office properties.

S&P 500 Diversified Financial Services.

Diversified financial services companies that provides a range of financial products and services to consumers, corporations, governments, and institutions worldwide including consumer and commercial lending and capital markets services.

Companies that own and operate various retail formats including supermarkets, supercenters, warehouse clubs and drug stores.

S&P 500 Oil & Gas Exploration & Produção.

Companies that are engaged in the discovery, production, processing and refining of oil and natural gas.

Companies involved in the gathering, storage and distribution of natural gas for power generation.

Companies that provide drilling services for oil and gas production.

Companies involved in the delivery of health care services.

Companies involved in providing health care benefits including group insurance and other diversified health care services.

S&P 500 Life Sciences Tools & Serviços.

Companies that provide drug development and other product development services, equipment, software and services for research, manufacturing discovery and medical diagnostics.

Companies involved in electricity generation from nuclear, fossil, hydro, renewable and other sources.

S&P 500 Construction Materials.

Companies that provide raw and intermediate stage materials for use in construction of infrastructure such as roads and bridges.

Retailers in the sales of specialty products such as apparel, accessories, jewelry and other luxury goods.

Companies involved in the development and construction of single-family homes and housing developments.

S&P 500 Telecommunications Services.

Companies that provide communications services to retail and commercial customers.

S&P 500 Constructions and Farm Machinery.

Companies involved in the manufacturing of heavy equipment for use in construction and farming industries.